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If there are multiple causes, will resolve to my subjective weighting of factors. I will not bet in this market.\n\nReverse causation - If being at low risk of diabetes causes people to eat more ice cream.\n\nSubstitution effects - If people who eat ice cream eat less of other, less healthy, desserts.\n\nNutritional value - If ice cream is a healthy addition to the typical diet.\n\nDemographics - If ice cream consumption correlates with higher income or other demographic factors that correlate with lower diabetes risk.\n\nEmotional wellbeing - If ice cream increases happiness or reduces stress in a way that has health benefits.\n\nSlow eating - If ice cream is eaten slowly, and this has health benefits over foods that are eaten quickly.\n\nNot correlated - if ice cream consumption is not correlated with reduced diabetes risk, for example if studies that appear to show otherwise are due to chance. This is the Null Hypothesis.\n\nIf you have hot takes, please suggest them in comments and I may add new answers. I may also add my own hot take(s).\n\nThis mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). 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Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}