{"id":469,"slug":"will-10-000-worth-of-ai-hardware-be-able-to-train-a-gpt-3-equivalent-model-in","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-10-000-worth-of-ai-hardware-be-able-to-train-a-gpt-3-equivalent-model-in","q":"Will $10,000 worth of AI hardware be able to train a GPT-3 equivalent model in under 1 hour, by EOY 2027?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["ai","openai"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.1551,"ref":0.1551},{"name":"No","p":0.8449,"ref":0.8449}],"chance":0.1551,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/will-10000-worth-of-ai-hardware-be","ref":0.1551,"b":1254,"state":[-2337.023532,-211.352325],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791243685,"closes":1830315540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 11,693","closesWorldDay":11693,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"Using the best estimates we have at the time, using actually-purchasable hardware.\n\nGenerative Pre-trained Transformer 3 (GPT-3) is a large language model released by OpenAI in 2020. Like its predecessor, GPT-2, it is a decoder-only[2] transformer model of deep neural network, which supersedes recurrence and convolution-based architectures with a technique known as \"attention\".[3]\n\nIt uses a 2048-tokens-long context[jargon], float16 (16-bit) precision, and a hitherto-unprecedented 175 billion parameters, requiring 350GB of storage space as each parameter takes 2 bytes of space, and has demonstrated strong \"zero-shot\" and \"few-shot\" learning abilities on many tasks.\n\n\"GPT-3 equivalent\" in terms of floating point operations that were needed to train gpt3, as well as space requirements, energy requirements, etc. Algorithmic improvements that make a smaller model as good as gpt3 as an LLM would not count for the purpose of this question.\n\nThis mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). N/A or canceled there means everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 5, 7:41 PM ET · World Day 840","resolves":1830574740,"resolvesText":"Jan 3, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 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Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}