{"id":1108,"slug":"will-20k-humanoid-robots-be-manufactured-before-2029","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-20k-humanoid-robots-be-manufactured-before-2029","q":"Will 20K humanoid robots be manufactured before 2029?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["ai"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.9637,"ref":0.9637},{"name":"No","p":0.0363,"ref":0.0363}],"chance":0.9637,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-20k-humanoid-robots-be-manufac","ref":0.9637,"b":1288,"state":[-47.633364,-4270.68174],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791296742,"closes":1867100340,"closesText":"Mar 1, 5:59 PM ET · World Day 21,911","closesWorldDay":21911,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"Resolves as YES if at least 20 thousand humanoid robots have been manufactured before January 1st 2029.\n\nDifferent number of robots:\n\n@/RemNi/will-2k-humanoid-robots-be-manufact \n\n@/RemNi/will-5k-humanoid-robots-be-manufact \n\n@/RemNi/will-10k-humanoid-robots-be-manufac \n\n@/RemNi/will-20k-humanoid-robots-be-manufac (this question)\n@/RemNi/will-50k-humanoid-robots-be-manufac \n\n@/RemNi/will-100k-humanoid-robots-be-manufa \n\n@/RemNi/will-200k-humanoid-robots-be-manufa \n\n@/RemNi/will-500k-humanoid-robots-be-manufa-7bcec2feb6cc \n\n@/RemNi/will-1m-humanoid-robots-be-manufact \n\n@/RemNi/will-2m-humanoid-robots-be-manufact \n\nDifferent years:\n\n@/RemNi/will-20k-humanoid-robots-be-manufac-280c533c681a \n\n@/RemNi/will-20k-humanoid-robots-be-manufac (this question)\n\n@/RemNi/will-20k-humanoid-robots-be-manufac-027d2adb7b87 \n\n@/RemNi/will-20k-humanoid-robots-be-manufac-dfdcca40f9e1 \n\nOther questions for 2029:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2029-ef1c187271ed \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2029 \n\n@/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-again-onto-the-7e6517a06d7e \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-8c83c68daf1a \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-99b4d79ded14 \n\n@/RemNi/will-a-significant-ai-generated-mem-7b1d4b5ec34 \n\nThese humanoid robots must meet specific criteria to be counted towards this total. Each robot must be bipedal, walking upright on two legs in a manner that broadly resembles human walking. Additionally, each robot must be equipped with hands capable of manipulating objects. The hands should have fingers or similar appendages, allowing them to grip, hold, and interact with various items. Each robot must be capable of autonomous function without external power for a duration of at least 1 hour in order to qualify in the context of this question.\n\nEach robot must be bet\n\nThis mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). N/A or canceled there means everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 6, 10:25 AM ET · World Day 855","resolves":1867359540,"resolvesText":"Mar 4, 5:59 PM ET · World Day 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Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}