{"id":117,"slug":"will-a-large-language-model-beat-a-super-grandmaster-playing-chess-by-eoy-2028","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-a-large-language-model-beat-a-super-grandmaster-playing-chess-by-eoy-2028","q":"Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["ai"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.56,"ref":0.5587},{"name":"No","p":0.44,"ref":0.4413}],"chance":0.56,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/MP/will-a-large-language-models-beat-a","ref":0.5587,"b":2788,"state":[-1616.533965,-2288.893779],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232165,"closes":1861930740,"closesText":"Dec 31, 9:59 PM ET · World Day 20,475","closesWorldDay":20475,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"If a large language models beats a super grandmaster (Classic elo of above 2,700) while playing blind chess by 2028, this market resolves to YES.\n\nI will ignore fun games, at my discretion. (Say a game where Hiraku loses to ChatGPT because he played the Bongcloud)\n\nSome clarification (28th Mar 2023): This market grew fast with a unclear description. My idea is to check whether a general intelligence can play chess, without being created specifically for doing so (like humans aren't chess playing machines). Some previous comments I did.\n\n1- To decide whether a given program is a LLM, I'll rely in the media and the nomenclature the creators give to it. If they choose to call it a LLM or some term that is related, I'll consider. Alternatively, a model that markets itself as a chess engine (or is called as such by the mainstream media) is unlikely to be qualified as a large language model.\n\n2- The model can write as much as it want to reason about the best move. But it can't have external help beyond what is already in the weights of the model. For example, it can't access a chess engine or a chess game database. \n\nI won't bet on this market and I will refund anyone who feels betrayed by this new description and had open bets by 28th Mar 2023. This market will require judgement.\n\nUpdate 2025-21-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - LLM identification: A program must be recognized by reputable media outlets (e.g., The Verge) as a Large Language Model (LLM) to qualify for this market.\n\nSelf-designation insufficient: Simply labeling a program as an LLM without external media recognition does not qualify it as an LLM for resolution purposes.\n\nUpdate 2025-06-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified their definition of \"blind chess\". The game must\n\nThis mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). N/A or canceled there means everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 5, 4:29 PM ET · World Day 837","resolves":1862189940,"resolvesText":"Jan 3, 9:59 PM ET · World Day 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Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}