{"id":1532,"slug":"will-a-new-pneumonic-plague-case-be-confirmed-in-russia-by-october-15","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-a-new-pneumonic-plague-case-be-confirmed-in-russia-by-october-15","q":"Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 15?","cat":"science","catName":"Science","emoji":"🔬","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.155,"ref":0.155},{"name":"No","p":0.845,"ref":0.845}],"chance":0.155,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/confirmed-pneumonic-plague-case-in-russia-byptptpt","ref":0.155,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":1616,"state":[-3012.757542,-272.164541],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791346602,"closes":1792123140,"closesText":"Oct 15, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,084","closesWorldDay":1084,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":"Another pneumonic plague case in Russia by...?","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a confirmed case of pneumonic plague in a human is reported in the Russian Federation at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Moscow time, . Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA \"confirmed case\" is a case explicitly identified by a qualifying source as laboratory-confirmed Yersinia pestis infection with pneumonic (pulmonary) involvement, or explicitly announced as a confirmed pneumonic plague case. Publication of the underlying laboratory results is not required. A bubonic or septicemic case that progresses to pneumonic plague qualifies. A case reported only as \"plague\" with no form specified, and a case described only as suspected or probable, do not qualify.\n\nThe case must be distinct from the Irkutsk Anti-Plague Research Institute employee who reportedly passed away on October 1, 2026; subsequent confirmation, reclassification, or post-mortem testing of that patient will not qualify. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation, not the date of exposure, symptom onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Russian federal or regional public health authorities and the WHO; however a consensus of credible sources will also suffice.","resolutionSource":"Polymarket's own resolution (UMA's optimistic oracle). If Polymarket voids or cancels it, everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 7, 12:16 AM ET · World Day 869","resolves":1792123140,"resolvesText":"Oct 15, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,084","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791346560,"p":[0.155,0.845],"r":[0.155,0.845]},{"at":1791350315,"p":[0.155,0.845],"r":[0.155,0.845]}],"book":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"mid":15.5,"bestBid":15,"bestAsk":16,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":16,"shares":61,"people":0,"house":61,"total":9.76},{"price":17,"shares":117,"people":0,"house":117,"total":29.65},{"price":18,"shares":112,"people":0,"house":112,"total":49.81},{"price":19,"shares":107,"people":0,"house":107,"total":70.14},{"price":20,"shares":103,"people":0,"house":103,"total":90.74},{"price":21,"shares":100,"people":0,"house":100,"total":111.74}],"bids":[{"price":15,"shares":63,"people":0,"house":63,"total":9.45},{"price":14,"shares":130,"people":0,"house":130,"total":27.65},{"price":13,"shares":138,"people":0,"house":138,"total":45.59},{"price":12,"shares":148,"people":0,"house":148,"total":63.35},{"price":11,"shares":159,"people":0,"house":159,"total":80.84},{"price":10,"shares":172,"people":0,"house":172,"total":98.04}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"mid":84.5,"bestBid":84,"bestAsk":85,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":85,"shares":63,"people":0,"house":63,"total":53.55},{"price":86,"shares":130,"people":0,"house":130,"total":165.35},{"price":87,"shares":138,"people":0,"house":138,"total":285.41},{"price":88,"shares":148,"people":0,"house":148,"total":415.65},{"price":89,"shares":159,"people":0,"house":159,"total":557.16},{"price":90,"shares":172,"people":0,"house":172,"total":711.96}],"bids":[{"price":84,"shares":61,"people":0,"house":61,"total":51.24},{"price":83,"shares":117,"people":0,"house":117,"total":148.35},{"price":82,"shares":112,"people":0,"house":112,"total":240.19},{"price":81,"shares":107,"people":0,"house":107,"total":326.86},{"price":80,"shares":103,"people":0,"house":103,"total":409.26},{"price":79,"shares":100,"people":0,"house":100,"total":488.26}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":1449,"slug":"russia-pneumonic-plague-spreads-abroad","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/russia-pneumonic-plague-spreads-abroad","q":"Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?","cat":"science","catName":"Science","emoji":"🔬","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.075,"ref":0.065},{"name":"No","p":0.925,"ref":0.935}],"chance":0.075,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/russia-pneumonic-plague-spreads-abroad","ref":0.065,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":1415,"state":[-3665.228039,-110.315581],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791337002,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":855,"slug":"plague-pandemic-in-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/plague-pandemic-in-2026","q":"Plague pandemic in 2026?","cat":"science","catName":"Science","emoji":"🔬","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0505,"ref":0.046},{"name":"No","p":0.9495,"ref":0.954}],"chance":0.0505,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/plague-pandemic-in-2026","ref":0.046,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":1427,"state":[-4260.710832,-73.946781],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791275381,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":107,"slug":"new-pandemic-in-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/new-pandemic-in-2026","q":"New pandemic in 2026?","cat":"science","catName":"Science","emoji":"🔬","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.055,"ref":0.065},{"name":"No","p":0.945,"ref":0.935}],"chance":0.055,"change24":0,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/new-pandemic-in-2026","ref":0.065,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":4093,"state":[-11871.42763,-231.542449],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232045,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":1442,"slug":"all-millennium-prize-problems-solved-before-may-2027","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/all-millennium-prize-problems-solved-before-may-2027","q":"All Millennium Prize Problems solved before May 2027?","cat":"science","catName":"Science","emoji":"🔬","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.08,"ref":0.1643},{"name":"No","p":0.92,"ref":0.8357}],"chance":0.08,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/Plant/all-millennium-prize-problems-solve","ref":0.1643,"refSrc":"Manifold","b":2171,"state":[-5483.356887,-181.021473],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791335922,"closes":1809129540,"closesText":"Apr 30, 7:59 PM ET · World Day 5,808","closesWorldDay":5808,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":1110,"slug":"majority-of-scientists-believe-theres-life-on-k2-18-b-before-2027","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/majority-of-scientists-believe-theres-life-on-k2-18-b-before-2027","q":"Majority of scientists believe there's life on K2-18 b before 2027?","cat":"science","catName":"Science","emoji":"🔬","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0528,"ref":0.0527},{"name":"No","p":0.9472,"ref":0.9473}],"chance":0.0528,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/SG/majority-of-scientists-believe-ther","ref":0.0527,"refSrc":"Manifold","b":1965,"state":[-5779.866593,-106.573509],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791296982,"closes":1798761540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 2,928","closesWorldDay":2928,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":522,"slug":"more-than-1000-cases-of-irkutsk-plague","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/more-than-1000-cases-of-irkutsk-plague","q":"More than 1000 cases of Irkutsk Plague?","cat":"science","catName":"Science","emoji":"🔬","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.1126,"ref":0.0618},{"name":"No","p":0.8874,"ref":0.9382}],"chance":0.1126,"change24":0,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/JoeandSeth/more-than-1000-cases-of-irkutsk-pla","ref":0.0618,"refSrc":"Manifold","b":1357,"state":[-2963.78952,-162.078698],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791248965,"closes":1830297540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 11,688","closesWorldDay":11688,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}