{"id":322,"slug":"will-a-solopreneur-billionaire-emerge-by-2028-year-end","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-a-solopreneur-billionaire-emerge-by-2028-year-end","q":"Will a solopreneur billionaire emerge by 2028 year-end?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.1971,"ref":0.1971},{"name":"No","p":0.8029,"ref":0.8029}],"chance":0.1971,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/MP/will-a-solopreneur-billionaire-emer","ref":0.1971,"b":1312,"state":[-2130.480064,-288.082184],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791238405,"closes":1861930740,"closesText":"Dec 31, 9:59 PM ET · World Day 20,475","closesWorldDay":20475,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"I will consider a soloprenour as defined by the financial media (FT, The Economist, Forbes, WSJ, Nikkei, Reuters, Bloomberg...) and billionaire as also defined by the same mainstream financial media.\n\nThis mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). N/A or canceled there means everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 5, 6:13 PM ET · World Day 839","resolves":1862189940,"resolvesText":"Jan 3, 9:59 PM ET · World Day 20,547","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791238380,"p":[0.1971,0.8029],"r":[0.1971,0.8029]},{"at":1791249660,"p":[0.1971,0.8029],"r":[0.1971,0.8029]},{"at":1791260460,"p":[0.1971,0.8029],"r":[0.1971,0.8029]},{"at":1791261334,"p":[0.1971,0.8029],"r":[0.1971,0.8029]}],"book":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"mid":19.71,"bestBid":19,"bestAsk":20,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":20,"shares":24,"people":0,"house":24,"total":4.8},{"price":21,"shares":80,"people":0,"house":80,"total":21.6},{"price":22,"shares":78,"people":0,"house":78,"total":38.76},{"price":23,"shares":75,"people":0,"house":75,"total":56.01},{"price":24,"shares":73,"people":0,"house":73,"total":73.53},{"price":25,"shares":71,"people":0,"house":71,"total":91.28}],"bids":[{"price":19,"shares":60,"people":0,"house":60,"total":11.4},{"price":18,"shares":87,"people":0,"house":87,"total":27.06},{"price":17,"shares":91,"people":0,"house":91,"total":42.53},{"price":16,"shares":95,"people":0,"house":95,"total":57.73},{"price":15,"shares":100,"people":0,"house":100,"total":72.73},{"price":14,"shares":106,"people":0,"house":106,"total":87.57}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"mid":80.29,"bestBid":80,"bestAsk":81,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":81,"shares":60,"people":0,"house":60,"total":48.6},{"price":82,"shares":87,"people":0,"house":87,"total":119.94},{"price":83,"shares":91,"people":0,"house":91,"total":195.47},{"price":84,"shares":95,"people":0,"house":95,"total":275.27},{"price":85,"shares":100,"people":0,"house":100,"total":360.27},{"price":86,"shares":106,"people":0,"house":106,"total":451.43}],"bids":[{"price":80,"shares":24,"people":0,"house":24,"total":19.2},{"price":79,"shares":80,"people":0,"house":80,"total":82.4},{"price":78,"shares":78,"people":0,"house":78,"total":143.24},{"price":77,"shares":75,"people":0,"house":75,"total":200.99},{"price":76,"shares":73,"people":0,"house":73,"total":256.47},{"price":75,"shares":71,"people":0,"house":71,"total":309.72}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":28,"slug":"fed-decision-in-october","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/fed-decision-in-october","q":"Fed Decision in October?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":["fed"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"No change","p":0.7947,"ref":0.7985},{"name":"25 bps increase","p":0.1935,"ref":0.1935},{"name":"50+ bps increase","p":0.0042,"ref":0.0035},{"name":"25 bps decrease","p":0.0038,"ref":0.0035},{"name":"Other","p":0.0038,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.7947,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":423,"trades":12,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537","ref":0.7985,"b":7670,"state":[-1338.962359,-12174.269934,-41465.482841,-42353.554044,-42353.554044],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1793246340,"closesText":"Oct 28, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,396","closesWorldDay":1396,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":16,"slug":"strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31","q":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.2004,"ref":0.185},{"name":"No","p":0.7996,"ref":0.815}],"chance":0.2004,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":855,"trades":23,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31","ref":0.185,"b":5728,"state":[-8350.424072,-425.760725],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":24,"slug":"bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-october-31","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-october-31","q":"Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0956,"ref":0.055},{"name":"No","p":0.9044,"ref":0.945}],"chance":0.0956,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":1200,"trades":26,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by","ref":0.055,"b":4032,"state":[-8263.501882,794.908343],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1793505540,"closesText":"Oct 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,468","closesWorldDay":1468,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":57,"slug":"will-crude-oil-reach-a-new-all-time-high-by-december-31","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-crude-oil-reach-a-new-all-time-high-by-december-31","q":"Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.1398,"ref":0.1},{"name":"No","p":0.8602,"ref":0.9}],"chance":0.1398,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":219,"trades":10,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/crude-oil-all-time-high-by","ref":0.1,"b":4327,"state":[-8293.231782,-431.922591],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231805,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":160,"slug":"xi-jinping-out-before-2027","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/xi-jinping-out-before-2027","q":"Xi Jinping out before 2027?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0442,"ref":0.0245},{"name":"No","p":0.9558,"ref":0.9755}],"chance":0.0442,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":116,"trades":7,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/xi-jinping-out-before-2027","ref":0.0245,"b":5738,"state":[-17783.713442,-142.331772],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791233005,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":233,"slug":"fed-decision-in-december","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/fed-decision-in-december","q":"Fed Decision in December?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":["fed"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"25 bps increase","p":0.7303,"ref":0.7337},{"name":"No change","p":0.2206,"ref":0.2216},{"name":"50+ bps increase","p":0.0289,"ref":0.029},{"name":"25 bps decrease","p":0.0123,"ref":0.0113},{"name":"50+ bps decrease","p":0.004,"ref":0.0034},{"name":"Other","p":0.004,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.7303,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-december-20260729232808632","ref":0.7337,"b":5797.5,"state":[-1822.308564,-8763.561489,-20542.401019,-25520.491755,-32014.398889,-32014.398889],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791234805,"closes":1796878740,"closesText":"Dec 9, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,405","closesWorldDay":2405,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}