{"id":1553,"slug":"will-an-ai-lab-announce-another-millennium-prize-solution-by-december-31-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-an-ai-lab-announce-another-millennium-prize-solution-by-december-31-2026","q":"Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["ai"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.34,"ref":0.345},{"name":"No","p":0.66,"ref":0.655}],"chance":0.34,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/ai-lab-announces-another-millennium-prize-solution-by","ref":0.345,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":2856,"state":[-3081.080393,-1186.712108],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791349002,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":"AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an eligible AI lab, or an official representative of an eligible AI lab, announces that the lab has solved any of the qualifying Millennium Prize Problems by 11:59 PM ET of the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe qualifying problems are the Riemann Hypothesis, P versus NP, the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem, the Hodge Conjecture, and the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying announcement must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of the lab, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used the lab's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from Clay Math Institute or any other organization is required.\n\nThe eligible AI labs are Anthropic, Google, SpaceXAI, Alibaba, OpenAI, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, Moonshot, Meta, Nvidia, DeepSeek, MiniMax, Meituan, Amazon, ByteDance, Mistral, Tencent, StepFun, Microsoft, Harmonic, Axiom Math, Math Inc, Safe Superintelligence, Thinking Machines Lab, Reflection AI, Periodic Labs, Apple, IBM, Huawei, Samsung, Oracle, Salesforce, Cohere, AI21 Labs, Reka, Sakana AI, Poolside, Magic, Perplexity, Anysphere, Kuaishou, SenseTime, iFlytek, Baichuan, and 01.AI, together with their subsidiaries and research divisions, and any other company with a model listed on the MMLU-pro leaderboard (https://huggingface.co/spaces/TIGER-Lab/MMLU-Pro) at the time of the announcement. Announcements by any other company, organization, or individual will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the eligible AI labs and/or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","resolutionSource":"Polymarket's own resolution (UMA's optimistic oracle). If Polymarket voids or cancels it, everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 7, 12:56 AM ET · World Day 869","resolves":1798779540,"resolvesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791348960,"p":[0.34,0.66],"r":[0.34,0.66]},{"at":1791350160,"p":[0.34,0.66],"r":[0.345,0.655]},{"at":1791353453,"p":[0.34,0.66],"r":[0.345,0.655]}],"book":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"mid":34,"bestBid":33,"bestAsk":35,"spread":2,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":35,"shares":126,"people":0,"house":126,"total":44.1},{"price":36,"shares":125,"people":0,"house":125,"total":89.1},{"price":37,"shares":123,"people":0,"house":123,"total":134.61},{"price":38,"shares":122,"people":0,"house":122,"total":180.97},{"price":39,"shares":121,"people":0,"house":121,"total":228.16},{"price":40,"shares":119,"people":0,"house":119,"total":275.76}],"bids":[{"price":33,"shares":128,"people":0,"house":128,"total":42.24},{"price":32,"shares":130,"people":0,"house":130,"total":83.84},{"price":31,"shares":133,"people":0,"house":133,"total":125.07},{"price":30,"shares":135,"people":0,"house":135,"total":165.57},{"price":29,"shares":137,"people":0,"house":137,"total":205.3},{"price":28,"shares":140,"people":0,"house":140,"total":244.5}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"mid":66,"bestBid":65,"bestAsk":67,"spread":2,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":67,"shares":128,"people":0,"house":128,"total":85.76},{"price":68,"shares":130,"people":0,"house":130,"total":174.16},{"price":69,"shares":133,"people":0,"house":133,"total":265.93},{"price":70,"shares":135,"people":0,"house":135,"total":360.43},{"price":71,"shares":137,"people":0,"house":137,"total":457.7},{"price":72,"shares":140,"people":0,"house":140,"total":558.5}],"bids":[{"price":65,"shares":126,"people":0,"house":126,"total":81.9},{"price":64,"shares":125,"people":0,"house":125,"total":161.9},{"price":63,"shares":123,"people":0,"house":123,"total":239.39},{"price":62,"shares":122,"people":0,"house":122,"total":315.03},{"price":61,"shares":121,"people":0,"house":121,"total":388.84},{"price":60,"shares":119,"people":0,"house":119,"total":460.24}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":72,"slug":"gemini-4-0-released-by-october-31-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/gemini-4-0-released-by-october-31-2026","q":"Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["ai"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.8295,"ref":0.935},{"name":"No","p":0.1705,"ref":0.065}],"chance":0.8295,"change24":0.0256,"change7d":null,"vol":7842,"trades":186,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/gemini-4pt0-released-by-june-30-2026","ref":0.935,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":2754,"state":[7326.848342,2969.030857],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231805,"closes":1793505540,"closesText":"Oct 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,468","closesWorldDay":1468,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":49,"slug":"will-indiana-enact-a-data-center-moratorium-by-december-31-2028","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-indiana-enact-a-data-center-moratorium-by-december-31-2028","q":"Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["ai"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.2235,"ref":0.145},{"name":"No","p":0.7765,"ref":0.855}],"chance":0.2235,"change24":-0.0229,"change7d":null,"vol":1572,"trades":31,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/indiana-enacts-data-center-moratorium-by-20260929","ref":0.145,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":3495,"state":[-3664.92027,688.494934],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231805,"closes":1861937940,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 20,477","closesWorldDay":20477,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":1428,"slug":"will-louisiana-enact-a-data-center-moratorium-by-december-31-2028","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-louisiana-enact-a-data-center-moratorium-by-december-31-2028","q":"Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["ai"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.185,"ref":0.185},{"name":"No","p":0.815,"ref":0.815}],"chance":0.185,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/louisiana-enacts-data-center-moratorium-by-20260929","ref":0.185,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":2613,"state":[-4409.174773,-534.534004],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791332802,"closes":1861937940,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 20,477","closesWorldDay":20477,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":257,"slug":"which-company-has-the-best-ai-model-end-of-october","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/which-company-has-the-best-ai-model-end-of-october","q":"Which company has the best AI model end of October?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["ai"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Google","p":0.6529,"ref":0.6962},{"name":"Anthropic","p":0.3191,"ref":0.2766},{"name":"OpenAI","p":0.0128,"ref":0.0097},{"name":"Meta","p":0.0059,"ref":0.0067},{"name":"Other","p":0.0093,"ref":0.0108}],"chance":0.6529,"change24":0,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-the-best-ai-model-end-of-october","ref":0.6962,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":5530,"state":[-2357.434548,-6316.703625,-24117.086936,-28392.827018,-25851.613237],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791236005,"closes":1793462400,"closesText":"Oct 31, 12 PM ET · World Day 1,456","closesWorldDay":1456,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":1150,"slug":"will-anthropic-ipo-by-december-31-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-anthropic-ipo-by-december-31-2026","q":"Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["ai"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.855,"ref":0.825},{"name":"No","p":0.145,"ref":0.175}],"chance":0.855,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/anthropic-ipo-by","ref":0.825,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":4021,"state":[-629.90497,-7764.637599],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791300642,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":1054,"slug":"next-gemini-pro-model-released-on","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/next-gemini-pro-model-released-on","q":"Next Gemini Pro Model released on...?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["ai"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"No release by October 31","p":0.6698,"ref":0.7188},{"name":"October 6","p":0.0836,"ref":0.001},{"name":"October 20","p":0.0346,"ref":0.049},{"name":"October 25","p":0.0294,"ref":0.0266},{"name":"October 10","p":0.0252,"ref":0.0247},{"name":"October 23","p":0.0252,"ref":0.027},{"name":"October 13","p":0.0222,"ref":0.0275},{"name":"October 17","p":0.009,"ref":0.0096},{"name":"October 8","p":0.0085,"ref":0.0087},{"name":"October 27","p":0.0085,"ref":0.0142},{"name":"Other","p":0.084,"ref":0.0929}],"chance":0.6698,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-gemini-pro-model-released-onptptpt-20260922131618444","ref":0.7188,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":2888.75,"state":[-1157.76262,-7168.431656,-9721.120382,-10184.310213,-10636.599087,-10636.599087,-11001.430086,-13620.721186,-13761.663773,-13761.663773,-7153.730606],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791292061,"closes":1793491140,"closesText":"Oct 31, 7:59 PM ET · World Day 1,464","closesWorldDay":1464,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}