{"id":156,"slug":"will-another-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-in-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-another-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-in-2026","q":"Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["ai"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.38,"ref":0.39},{"name":"No","p":0.62,"ref":0.61}],"chance":0.38,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/HumanClanker/will-another-millennium-prize-probl","ref":0.39,"b":2346,"state":[-2269.952126,-1121.471989],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232885,"closes":1798790340,"closesText":"Jan 1, 2:59 AM ET · World Day 2,936","closesWorldDay":2936,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"Resolution criteria\n\nThis market will resolve to YES if, between September 9, 2026, and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC, a proposed solution for at least one of the remaining five Millennium Prize Problems is formally announced or published.\n\nThe five eligible problems for this market are:\n\nP versus NP\n\nThe Riemann Hypothesis\n\nYang-Mills Existence and Mass Gap\n\nThe Hodge Conjecture\n\nThe Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture\n\nFor the purposes of this market's resolution:\n\nNavier-Stokes Existence and Smoothness is excluded from resolving this market to YES. OpenAI announced a proposed solution to Navier-Stokes on September 8, 2026. This market specifically tracks whether another (i.e. a third) Millennium Prize Problem will have a solution claimed or published in 2026.\n\nPoincaré Conjecture is excluded as it was solved prior to 2026.\n\nThe proposed solution must be put forward by a recognized mathematician, a reputable academic institution, or a major AI/technology research organization (such as OpenAI, Google DeepMind, Anthropic, etc.).\n\nThe announcement must be accompanied by a published paper, a public preprint (such as on arXiv), or a formalized computer-verified proof (such as in Lean or Coq).\n\nThe solution does not need to be officially verified or awarded by the Clay Mathematics Institute by the end of 2026 (as CMI rules require a two-year waiting period after publication). However, the solution must not be widely debunked or retracted by the mathematical community before December 31, 2026.\n\nIf no other eligible Millennium Prize Problem has a proposed solution announced by the end of 2026, this market will resolve to NO.\n\nBackground\n\nThe Millennium Prize Problems are seven mathematical puzzles selected by the Clay Mathematics Institute in 2000, each carrying a $1 mi\n\nThis mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). N/A or canceled there means everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 5, 4:41 PM ET · World Day 837","resolves":1799049540,"resolvesText":"Jan 4, 2:59 AM ET · World Day 3,008","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791232860,"p":[0.38,0.62],"r":[0.38,0.62]},{"at":1791235260,"p":[0.38,0.62],"r":[0.3893,0.6107]},{"at":1791236400,"p":[0.38,0.62],"r":[0.3835,0.6165]},{"at":1791242640,"p":[0.38,0.62],"r":[0.3893,0.6107]},{"at":1791255642,"p":[0.38,0.62],"r":[0.39,0.61]}],"book":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"mid":38,"bestBid":37,"bestAsk":39,"spread":2,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":39,"shares":99,"people":0,"house":99,"total":38.61},{"price":40,"shares":98,"people":0,"house":98,"total":77.81},{"price":41,"shares":98,"people":0,"house":98,"total":117.99},{"price":42,"shares":96,"people":0,"house":96,"total":158.31},{"price":43,"shares":96,"people":0,"house":96,"total":199.59},{"price":44,"shares":96,"people":0,"house":96,"total":241.83}],"bids":[{"price":37,"shares":100,"people":0,"house":100,"total":37},{"price":36,"shares":101,"people":0,"house":101,"total":73.36},{"price":35,"shares":103,"people":0,"house":103,"total":109.41},{"price":34,"shares":104,"people":0,"house":104,"total":144.77},{"price":33,"shares":105,"people":0,"house":105,"total":179.42},{"price":32,"shares":107,"people":0,"house":107,"total":213.66}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"mid":62,"bestBid":61,"bestAsk":63,"spread":2,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":63,"shares":100,"people":0,"house":100,"total":63},{"price":64,"shares":101,"people":0,"house":101,"total":127.64},{"price":65,"shares":103,"people":0,"house":103,"total":194.59},{"price":66,"shares":104,"people":0,"house":104,"total":263.23},{"price":67,"shares":105,"people":0,"house":105,"total":333.58},{"price":68,"shares":107,"people":0,"house":107,"total":406.34}],"bids":[{"price":61,"shares":99,"people":0,"house":99,"total":60.39},{"price":60,"shares":98,"people":0,"house":98,"total":119.19},{"price":59,"shares":98,"people":0,"house":98,"total":177.01},{"price":58,"shares":96,"people":0,"house":96,"total":232.69},{"price":57,"shares":96,"people":0,"house":96,"total":287.41},{"price":56,"shares":96,"people":0,"house":96,"total":341.17}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":72,"slug":"gemini-4-0-released-by-october-31-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/gemini-4-0-released-by-october-31-2026","q":"Gemini 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AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["ai"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Google","p":0.6529,"ref":0.6981},{"name":"Anthropic","p":0.3191,"ref":0.2831},{"name":"OpenAI","p":0.0128,"ref":0.012},{"name":"Meta","p":0.0059,"ref":0.0058},{"name":"Other","p":0.0093,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.6529,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-the-best-ai-model-end-of-october","ref":0.6981,"b":5530,"state":[-2357.434548,-6316.703625,-24117.086936,-28392.827018,-25851.613237],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791236005,"closes":1793462400,"closesText":"Oct 31, 12 PM ET · World Day 1,456","closesWorldDay":1456,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":58,"slug":"will-ohio-enact-a-data-center-moratorium-by-december-31-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-ohio-enact-a-data-center-moratorium-by-december-31-2026","q":"Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["ai"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.055,"ref":0.055},{"name":"No","p":0.945,"ref":0.945}],"chance":0.055,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/ohio-enacts-data-center-moratorium-by-20260928","ref":0.055,"b":2805,"state":[-8135.683973,-158.679836],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231805,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":73,"slug":"will-anthropic-announce-bankruptcy-by-december-31-2027","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-anthropic-announce-bankruptcy-by-december-31-2027","q":"Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & 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Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}