{"id":682,"slug":"will-any-4-of-aapl-amzn-asml-goog-meta-msft-nvda-and-tsm-lose-60-of-their-peak","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-any-4-of-aapl-amzn-asml-goog-meta-msft-nvda-and-tsm-lose-60-of-their-peak","q":"Will any 4 of AAPL, AMZN, ASML, GOOG, META, MSFT, NVDA, and TSM lose 60% of their peak value before 2028?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":["stocks","ai"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.1889,"ref":0.1889},{"name":"No","p":0.8111,"ref":0.8111}],"chance":0.1889,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/AllenLiu/will-any-4-of-aapl-amzn-asml-goog-m","ref":0.1889,"b":1532,"state":[-2553.400616,-320.68379],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791261447,"closes":1830315540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 11,693","closesWorldDay":11693,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"Is there an AI bubble, and if so how big is it? Let's find out using the actual stock market.\n\nResolves YES if and only if any 4 of the mentioned stocks (AAPL, AMZN, ASML, GOOG, META, MSFT, NVDA, and TSM) trade at 40% or less of their split-adjusted historical peak between now and Dec 31, 2027, inclusive. For example, if ASML goes up to a new peak of $1200 and then falls back down to $480 a share, then ASML will count as one the 4 stocks. The 4 stocks need not all be below 40% at the same time.\n\nIf any of the stocks are renamed, the market will continue track the price of the stock under its new name. If any are acquired by another publicly traded company, the market will track the proportion of that other company's stock which the original stock represents.\n\nThis mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). N/A or canceled there means everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 6, 12:37 AM ET · World Day 845","resolves":1830574740,"resolvesText":"Jan 3, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 11,765","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791261420,"p":[0.1889,0.8111],"r":[0.1889,0.8111]},{"at":1791273508,"p":[0.1889,0.8111],"r":[0.1889,0.8111]}],"book":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"mid":18.89,"bestBid":18,"bestAsk":19,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":19,"shares":11,"people":0,"house":11,"total":2.09},{"price":20,"shares":98,"people":0,"house":98,"total":21.69},{"price":21,"shares":94,"people":0,"house":94,"total":41.43},{"price":22,"shares":91,"people":0,"house":91,"total":61.45},{"price":23,"shares":88,"people":0,"house":88,"total":81.69},{"price":24,"shares":85,"people":0,"house":85,"total":102.09}],"bids":[{"price":18,"shares":90,"people":0,"house":90,"total":16.2},{"price":17,"shares":106,"people":0,"house":106,"total":34.22},{"price":16,"shares":112,"people":0,"house":112,"total":52.14},{"price":15,"shares":117,"people":0,"house":117,"total":69.69},{"price":14,"shares":123,"people":0,"house":123,"total":86.91},{"price":13,"shares":132,"people":0,"house":132,"total":104.07}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"mid":81.11,"bestBid":81,"bestAsk":82,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":82,"shares":90,"people":0,"house":90,"total":73.8},{"price":83,"shares":106,"people":0,"house":106,"total":161.78},{"price":84,"shares":112,"people":0,"house":112,"total":255.86},{"price":85,"shares":117,"people":0,"house":117,"total":355.31},{"price":86,"shares":123,"people":0,"house":123,"total":461.09},{"price":87,"shares":132,"people":0,"house":132,"total":575.93}],"bids":[{"price":81,"shares":11,"people":0,"house":11,"total":8.91},{"price":80,"shares":98,"people":0,"house":98,"total":87.31},{"price":79,"shares":94,"people":0,"house":94,"total":161.57},{"price":78,"shares":91,"people":0,"house":91,"total":232.55},{"price":77,"shares":88,"people":0,"house":88,"total":300.31},{"price":76,"shares":85,"people":0,"house":85,"total":364.91}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":28,"slug":"fed-decision-in-october","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/fed-decision-in-october","q":"Fed 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2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":24,"slug":"bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-october-31","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-october-31","q":"Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0935,"ref":0.055},{"name":"No","p":0.9065,"ref":0.945}],"chance":0.0935,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":1422,"trades":36,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by","ref":0.055,"b":4032,"state":[-8212.501882,945.908343],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1793505540,"closesText":"Oct 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,468","closesWorldDay":1468,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":57,"slug":"will-crude-oil-reach-a-new-all-time-high-by-december-31","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-crude-oil-reach-a-new-all-time-high-by-december-31","q":"Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.1552,"ref":0.095},{"name":"No","p":0.8448,"ref":0.905}],"chance":0.1552,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":297,"trades":13,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/crude-oil-all-time-high-by","ref":0.095,"b":4327,"state":[-7763.231782,-431.922591],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231805,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":160,"slug":"xi-jinping-out-before-2027","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/xi-jinping-out-before-2027","q":"Xi Jinping out before 2027?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0449,"ref":0.0245},{"name":"No","p":0.9551,"ref":0.9755}],"chance":0.0449,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":148,"trades":9,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/xi-jinping-out-before-2027","ref":0.0245,"b":5738,"state":[-17683.713442,-142.331772],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791233005,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":233,"slug":"fed-decision-in-december","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/fed-decision-in-december","q":"Fed Decision in December?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":["fed"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"25 bps increase","p":0.7303,"ref":0.7337},{"name":"No change","p":0.2206,"ref":0.2216},{"name":"50+ bps increase","p":0.0289,"ref":0.029},{"name":"25 bps decrease","p":0.0123,"ref":0.0113},{"name":"50+ bps decrease","p":0.004,"ref":0.0034},{"name":"Other","p":0.004,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.7303,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-december-20260729232808632","ref":0.7337,"b":5797.5,"state":[-1822.308564,-8763.561489,-20542.401019,-25520.491755,-32014.398889,-32014.398889],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791234805,"closes":1796878740,"closesText":"Dec 9, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,405","closesWorldDay":2405,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}