{"id":33,"slug":"will-any-german-state-prime-minister-in-2026-be-elected-with-afd-support","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-any-german-state-prime-minister-in-2026-be-elected-with-afd-support","q":"Will any German State Prime Minister in 2026 be elected with AfD support?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["world-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.7611,"ref":0.7294},{"name":"No","p":0.2389,"ref":0.2706}],"chance":0.7611,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/Simon74fe/will-any-german-state-prime-ministe","ref":0.7294,"b":1782,"state":[-486.54307,-2551.072025],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1798761540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 2,928","closesWorldDay":2928,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"Resolves based on any State Prime Minister (Ministerpräsident) elections in German state parliaments in 2026, whether after scheduled state elections or otherwise (e.g., a state PM resigning).\n\nResolves YES if AfD MPs vote for a winning candidate AND their votes are necessary for the candidate to win.\n\nResolves NO if all State Prime Ministers elected in 2026 are elected without necessary AfD support.\n\nScheduled 2026 state elections:\n\nBaden-Württemberg (8 March)\n\nRhineland-Palatinate (22 March)\n\nSaxony-Anhalt (6 September)\n\nBerlin (20 September)\n\nMecklenburg-Vorpommern (20 September)\n\nFor these five scheduled elections held in 2026, the subsequent Prime Minister vote counts even if it takes place in 2027.\n\nExample: The only time so far that a prime minister was voted in with necessary votes from the AfD was the election of Thomas Kemmerich (FDP) as State Prime Minister of Thuringia in 2020 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Thuringian_government_crisis).\n\nNote: If votes are secret, resolution will be based on other publicly available information (e.g., coalition agreements, party statements). In ambiguous cases, resolves based on market creator's best judgment.\n\nThis mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). N/A or canceled there means everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 5, 4:21 PM ET · World Day 837","resolves":1799020740,"resolvesText":"Jan 3, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 3,000","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791231660,"p":[0.7611,0.2389],"r":[0.7611,0.2389]},{"at":1791242460,"p":[0.7611,0.2389],"r":[0.7609,0.2391]},{"at":1791243180,"p":[0.7611,0.2389],"r":[0.7306,0.2694]},{"at":1791256860,"p":[0.7611,0.2389],"r":[0.7294,0.2706]},{"at":1791264217,"p":[0.7611,0.2389],"r":[0.7294,0.2706]}],"book":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"mid":76.11,"bestBid":76,"bestAsk":77,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":77,"shares":89,"people":0,"house":89,"total":68.53},{"price":78,"shares":102,"people":0,"house":102,"total":148.09},{"price":79,"shares":105,"people":0,"house":105,"total":231.04},{"price":80,"shares":110,"people":0,"house":110,"total":319.04},{"price":81,"shares":113,"people":0,"house":113,"total":410.57},{"price":82,"shares":119,"people":0,"house":119,"total":508.15}],"bids":[{"price":76,"shares":10,"people":0,"house":10,"total":7.6},{"price":75,"shares":97,"people":0,"house":97,"total":80.35},{"price":74,"shares":94,"people":0,"house":94,"total":149.91},{"price":73,"shares":91,"people":0,"house":91,"total":216.34},{"price":72,"shares":89,"people":0,"house":89,"total":280.42},{"price":71,"shares":88,"people":0,"house":88,"total":342.9}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"mid":23.89,"bestBid":23,"bestAsk":24,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":24,"shares":10,"people":0,"house":10,"total":2.4},{"price":25,"shares":97,"people":0,"house":97,"total":26.65},{"price":26,"shares":94,"people":0,"house":94,"total":51.09},{"price":27,"shares":91,"people":0,"house":91,"total":75.66},{"price":28,"shares":89,"people":0,"house":89,"total":100.58},{"price":29,"shares":88,"people":0,"house":88,"total":126.1}],"bids":[{"price":23,"shares":89,"people":0,"house":89,"total":20.47},{"price":22,"shares":102,"people":0,"house":102,"total":42.91},{"price":21,"shares":105,"people":0,"house":105,"total":64.96},{"price":20,"shares":110,"people":0,"house":110,"total":86.96},{"price":19,"shares":113,"people":0,"house":113,"total":108.43},{"price":18,"shares":119,"people":0,"house":119,"total":129.85}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":114,"slug":"which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026","q":"Which 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2026?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["world-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0655,"ref":0.0335},{"name":"No","p":0.9345,"ref":0.9665}],"chance":0.0655,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":1749,"trades":51,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/putin-out-before-2027","ref":0.0335,"b":6055,"state":[-14939.346856,1154.378115],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":144,"slug":"next-french-presidential-election-who-wins","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/next-french-presidential-election-who-wins","q":"Next French Presidential Election: who wins?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["world-elections"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Marine Le 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ET · World Day 5,524","closesWorldDay":5524,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":77,"slug":"prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election","q":"Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["world-elections"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Gadi Eizenkot","p":0.512,"ref":0.4891},{"name":"Benjamin Netanyahu","p":0.3476,"ref":0.3702},{"name":"Naftali Bennett","p":0.1009,"ref":0.1095},{"name":"Avigdor Lieberman","p":0.0169,"ref":0.0193},{"name":"Ofer Winter","p":0.0052,"ref":0.0058},{"name":"Itamar Ben 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Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}