{"id":352,"slug":"will-bitcoin-exceed-100-000-before-december-31-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-bitcoin-exceed-100-000-before-december-31-2026","q":"Will Bitcoin exceed $100,000 before December 31, 2026?","cat":"crypto","catName":"Crypto","emoji":"🪙","tags":["bitcoin"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.36,"ref":0.36},{"name":"No","p":0.64,"ref":0.64}],"chance":0.36,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/PhamThanhat/will-bitcoin-exceed-100000-before-d","ref":0.36,"b":956,"state":[-976.698593,-426.65047],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791239365,"closes":1798675140,"closesText":"Dec 30, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 2,904","closesWorldDay":2904,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"This market resolves to YES if Bitcoin price is above $100,000 USD at any time before Dec 31, 2026.\n\nResolution criteria\n\nThis market resolves YES if Bitcoin's price reaches or exceeds $100,000 USD at any point before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC. Resolution will be determined by checking the highest price recorded on major cryptocurrency exchanges (CoinMarketCap, CoinGecko, or Binance spot price). The market resolves NO if Bitcoin never reaches $100,000 by the deadline.\n\nBackground\n\nBitcoin has retraced more than 47% from its all-time high of $126,198 achieved in October 2025, currently trading around $67,000 as of mid-February 2026. Since October 2025, an estimated $8.5 billion has exited US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs, reflecting institutional profit-taking after the recent rally. Federal Reserve minutes suggest a split among officials regarding future interest rate paths, with some leaning toward a pause in cuts if inflation persists, which typically weighs on risk assets like cryptocurrencies.\n\nConsiderations\n\nAnalyst forecasts for 2026 vary widely. Expert Bitcoin price forecasts range from $75,000 to $225,000, while some predictions suggest a potential high of $178.2k and average price of $125.6k for 2026. Some analysts note that if even one bullish catalyst delivers as anticipated, Bitcoin could easily regain the $100,000 price level, and just a few months ago Bitcoin traded for more than $126,000. However, recent trading shows bitcoin staging short-lived rallies that quickly fade amid a stronger dollar and hawkish Fed signals, and a sustained advance will likely require clearer evidence of disinflation, a weaker dollar and consistent spot demand.\n\nThis description was generated by AI.\n\nThis mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). N/A or canceled there means everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 5, 6:29 PM ET · World Day 839","resolves":1798934340,"resolvesText":"Jan 2, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 2,976","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791239340,"p":[0.36,0.64],"r":[0.36,0.64]},{"at":1791253260,"p":[0.36,0.64],"r":[0.36,0.64]},{"at":1791264060,"p":[0.36,0.64],"r":[0.36,0.64]},{"at":1791274860,"p":[0.36,0.64],"r":[0.36,0.64]},{"at":1791280866,"p":[0.36,0.64],"r":[0.36,0.64]}],"book":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"mid":36,"bestBid":35,"bestAsk":37,"spread":2,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":37,"shares":41,"people":0,"house":41,"total":15.17},{"price":38,"shares":41,"people":0,"house":41,"total":30.75},{"price":39,"shares":40,"people":0,"house":40,"total":46.35},{"price":40,"shares":40,"people":0,"house":40,"total":62.35},{"price":41,"shares":40,"people":0,"house":40,"total":78.75},{"price":42,"shares":39,"people":0,"house":39,"total":95.13}],"bids":[{"price":35,"shares":42,"people":0,"house":42,"total":14.7},{"price":34,"shares":42,"people":0,"house":42,"total":28.98},{"price":33,"shares":43,"people":0,"house":43,"total":43.17},{"price":32,"shares":44,"people":0,"house":44,"total":57.25},{"price":31,"shares":44,"people":0,"house":44,"total":70.89},{"price":30,"shares":45,"people":0,"house":45,"total":84.39}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"mid":64,"bestBid":63,"bestAsk":65,"spread":2,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":65,"shares":42,"people":0,"house":42,"total":27.3},{"price":66,"shares":42,"people":0,"house":42,"total":55.02},{"price":67,"shares":43,"people":0,"house":43,"total":83.83},{"price":68,"shares":44,"people":0,"house":44,"total":113.75},{"price":69,"shares":44,"people":0,"house":44,"total":144.11},{"price":70,"shares":45,"people":0,"house":45,"total":175.61}],"bids":[{"price":63,"shares":41,"people":0,"house":41,"total":25.83},{"price":62,"shares":41,"people":0,"house":41,"total":51.25},{"price":61,"shares":40,"people":0,"house":40,"total":75.65},{"price":60,"shares":40,"people":0,"house":40,"total":99.65},{"price":59,"shares":40,"people":0,"house":40,"total":123.25},{"price":58,"shares":39,"people":0,"house":39,"total":145.87}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":62,"slug":"will-the-price-of-bitcoin-be-above-88-000-on-october-6","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-the-price-of-bitcoin-be-above-88-000-on-october-6","q":"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on October 6?","cat":"crypto","catName":"Crypto","emoji":"🪙","tags":["bitcoin","crypto-prices"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.1077,"ref":0.0355},{"name":"No","p":0.8923,"ref":0.9645}],"chance":0.1077,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":3040,"trades":59,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-on-october-6-2026/bitcoin-above-88k-on-october-6-2026","ref":0.0355,"b":2144,"state":[-1831.81539,2702.307288],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231805,"closes":1791302400,"closesText":"Oct 6, 12 PM ET · World Day 856","closesWorldDay":856,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":89,"slug":"will-the-price-of-bitcoin-be-above-84-000-on-october-6","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-the-price-of-bitcoin-be-above-84-000-on-october-6","q":"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 6?","cat":"crypto","catName":"Crypto","emoji":"🪙","tags":["bitcoin","crypto-prices"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.9185,"ref":0.973},{"name":"No","p":0.0815,"ref":0.027}],"chance":0.9185,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":2373,"trades":53,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-on-october-6-2026/bitcoin-above-84k-on-october-6-2026","ref":0.973,"b":1861,"state":[2101.722576,-2404.685516],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232045,"closes":1791302400,"closesText":"Oct 6, 12 PM ET · World Day 856","closesWorldDay":856,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":104,"slug":"will-microstrategy-announce-holding-1m-btc-by-december-31-2026-bv81","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-microstrategy-announce-holding-1m-btc-by-december-31-2026-bv81","q":"Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81","cat":"crypto","catName":"Crypto","emoji":"🪙","tags":["bitcoin"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.1372,"ref":0.065},{"name":"No","p":0.8628,"ref":0.935}],"chance":0.1372,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":3556,"trades":100,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-microstrategy-announce-holding-800k-btc-by-december-31-2026","ref":0.065,"b":3278,"state":[-3493.980334,2534.689719],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232045,"closes":1798779600,"closesText":"Jan 1, 12 AM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":306,"slug":"will-the-price-of-bitcoin-be-above-90-000-on-october-6","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-the-price-of-bitcoin-be-above-90-000-on-october-6","q":"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on October 6?","cat":"crypto","catName":"Crypto","emoji":"🪙","tags":["bitcoin","crypto-prices"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0832,"ref":0.0045},{"name":"No","p":0.9168,"ref":0.9955}],"chance":0.0832,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":862,"trades":54,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-on-october-6-2026/bitcoin-above-90k-on-october-6-2026","ref":0.0045,"b":2170,"state":[-4794.206103,414.101603],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791237805,"closes":1791302400,"closesText":"Oct 6, 12 PM ET · World Day 856","closesWorldDay":856,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":60,"slug":"will-bitcoin-dip-to-50-000-by-december-31-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-bitcoin-dip-to-50-000-by-december-31-2026","q":"Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?","cat":"crypto","catName":"Crypto","emoji":"🪙","tags":["bitcoin","crypto-prices"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.1056,"ref":0.055},{"name":"No","p":0.8944,"ref":0.945}],"chance":0.1056,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":387,"trades":16,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-before-2027/will-bitcoin-dip-to-50000-by-december-31-2026-454-325-222-878-949-487-451-853-523-111","ref":0.055,"b":4921,"state":[-10792.977123,-278.3827],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231805,"closes":1798779600,"closesText":"Jan 1, 12 AM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":52,"slug":"will-bitcoin-reach-87-500-in-october","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-bitcoin-reach-87-500-in-october","q":"Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?","cat":"crypto","catName":"Crypto","emoji":"🪙","tags":["bitcoin","crypto-prices"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.7799,"ref":0.825},{"name":"No","p":0.2201,"ref":0.175}],"chance":0.7799,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":62,"trades":2,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-october-2026/will-bitcoin-reach-87pt5k-in-october-2026","ref":0.825,"b":3257,"state":[-747.198676,-4868.515442],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231805,"closes":1793505600,"closesText":"Nov 1, 12 AM ET · World Day 1,468","closesWorldDay":1468,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}