{"id":184,"slug":"will-bitcoin-outperform-altcoins-in-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-bitcoin-outperform-altcoins-in-2026","q":"Will Bitcoin Outperform Altcoins in 2026?","cat":"crypto","catName":"Crypto","emoji":"🪙","tags":["bitcoin","crypto-prices"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.6615,"ref":0.6615},{"name":"No","p":0.3385,"ref":0.3385}],"chance":0.6615,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/Putcallparity/will-bitcoin-outperform-altcoins-in-quUc0gps9I","ref":0.6615,"b":1455,"state":[-601.322302,-1576.002895],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791233605,"closes":1798847940,"closesText":"Jan 1, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 2,952","closesWorldDay":2952,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"BTC returns will use the S&P Bitcoin Index (SPBTC) 2026 Return\n\nAltcoins will be represented by S&P Cryptocurrency BDA Ex-MegaCap Index (SPCBXM) 2026 Return\n\nMarketcap weighted index of the whole crypto currency space ex-Bitcoin and Ethereum\n\nThis mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). N/A or canceled there means everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 5, 4:53 PM ET · World Day 837","resolves":1799107140,"resolvesText":"Jan 4, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 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the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on October 6?","cat":"crypto","catName":"Crypto","emoji":"🪙","tags":["bitcoin","crypto-prices"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.056,"ref":0.0215},{"name":"No","p":0.944,"ref":0.9785}],"chance":0.056,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":2592,"trades":40,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-on-october-6-2026/bitcoin-above-88k-on-october-6-2026","ref":0.0215,"b":2144,"state":[-3627.81539,2427.307288],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231805,"closes":1791302400,"closesText":"Oct 6, 12 PM ET · World Day 856","closesWorldDay":856,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":89,"slug":"will-the-price-of-bitcoin-be-above-84-000-on-october-6","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-the-price-of-bitcoin-be-above-84-000-on-october-6","q":"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 6?","cat":"crypto","catName":"Crypto","emoji":"🪙","tags":["bitcoin","crypto-prices"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.9059,"ref":0.963},{"name":"No","p":0.0941,"ref":0.037}],"chance":0.9059,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":1728,"trades":44,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-on-october-6-2026/bitcoin-above-84k-on-october-6-2026","ref":0.963,"b":1861,"state":[1430.722576,-2782.685516],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232045,"closes":1791302400,"closesText":"Oct 6, 12 PM ET · World Day 856","closesWorldDay":856,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":104,"slug":"will-microstrategy-announce-holding-1m-btc-by-december-31-2026-bv81","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-microstrategy-announce-holding-1m-btc-by-december-31-2026-bv81","q":"Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81","cat":"crypto","catName":"Crypto","emoji":"🪙","tags":["bitcoin"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.1694,"ref":0.065},{"name":"No","p":0.8306,"ref":0.935}],"chance":0.1694,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":2606,"trades":69,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-microstrategy-announce-holding-800k-btc-by-december-31-2026","ref":0.065,"b":3278,"state":[-3678.980334,1533.689719],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232045,"closes":1798779600,"closesText":"Jan 1, 12 AM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":306,"slug":"will-the-price-of-bitcoin-be-above-90-000-on-october-6","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-the-price-of-bitcoin-be-above-90-000-on-october-6","q":"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on October 6?","cat":"crypto","catName":"Crypto","emoji":"🪙","tags":["bitcoin","crypto-prices"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0711,"ref":0.0045},{"name":"No","p":0.9289,"ref":0.9955}],"chance":0.0711,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":800,"trades":46,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-on-october-6-2026/bitcoin-above-90k-on-october-6-2026","ref":0.0045,"b":2170,"state":[-5161.206103,414.101603],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791237805,"closes":1791302400,"closesText":"Oct 6, 12 PM ET · World Day 856","closesWorldDay":856,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":60,"slug":"will-bitcoin-dip-to-50-000-by-december-31-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-bitcoin-dip-to-50-000-by-december-31-2026","q":"Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?","cat":"crypto","catName":"Crypto","emoji":"🪙","tags":["bitcoin","crypto-prices"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0853,"ref":0.055},{"name":"No","p":0.9147,"ref":0.945}],"chance":0.0853,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":160,"trades":7,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-before-2027/will-bitcoin-dip-to-50000-by-december-31-2026-454-325-222-878-949-487-451-853-523-111","ref":0.055,"b":4921,"state":[-11954.977123,-278.3827],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231805,"closes":1798779600,"closesText":"Jan 1, 12 AM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":52,"slug":"will-bitcoin-reach-87-500-in-october","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-bitcoin-reach-87-500-in-october","q":"Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?","cat":"crypto","catName":"Crypto","emoji":"🪙","tags":["bitcoin","crypto-prices"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.7799,"ref":0.795},{"name":"No","p":0.2201,"ref":0.205}],"chance":0.7799,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":62,"trades":2,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-october-2026/will-bitcoin-reach-87pt5k-in-october-2026","ref":0.795,"b":3257,"state":[-747.198676,-4868.515442],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231805,"closes":1793505600,"closesText":"Nov 1, 12 AM ET · World Day 1,468","closesWorldDay":1468,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}