{"id":808,"slug":"will-calvin-wang-submit-the-21w-023-discussion-post-homework-on-time-writing","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-calvin-wang-submit-the-21w-023-discussion-post-homework-on-time-writing","q":"Will Calvin Wang submit the 21W.023 Discussion Post Homework on time? (Writing Advice from Stephen King)","cat":"science","catName":"Science","emoji":"🔬","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.9307,"ref":0.9357},{"name":"No","p":0.0693,"ref":0.0643}],"chance":0.9307,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/DottedCalculator/will-calvin-wang-submit-the-21w023","ref":0.9357,"b":1360,"state":[-97.602979,-3631.201111],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791272021,"closes":1791342060,"closesText":"Oct 6, 11:01 PM ET · World Day 868","closesWorldDay":868,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"Calvin Wang is an MIT undergrad in the class of 2030. The course is known as Autobiography and Society, and submission is done online.\n\nThe assignment consists of two parts:\n\nOne 200-300 word discussion post, due Tuesday October 6 at 8 PM.\n\nTwo responses to discussion posts from other classmates, due Tuesday October 6 at 11 PM.\n\nIt is known that Calvin goes to bed around 4am ET. It is also known that Calvin has fallen asleep in class at least once. It is also known that he turned in the previous four discussion assignments 146 minutes, 118 minutes, 162 minutes, and 182 minutes late, respectively.\n\nThe market resolves YES if and only if the discussion posts are made with timestamps strictly before the deadline. A timestamp of 8:00 PM or 11:00 PM will be considered late.\n\nThis mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). N/A or canceled there means everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 6, 3:33 AM ET · World Day 848","resolves":1791601260,"resolvesText":"Oct 9, 11:01 PM ET · World Day 940","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791271980,"p":[0.9307,0.0693],"r":[0.9307,0.0693]},{"at":1791277980,"p":[0.9307,0.0693],"r":[0.9357,0.0643]},{"at":1791282376,"p":[0.9307,0.0693],"r":[0.9357,0.0643]}],"book":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"mid":93.07,"bestBid":93,"bestAsk":94,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":94,"shares":208,"people":0,"house":208,"total":195.52},{"price":95,"shares":263,"people":0,"house":263,"total":445.37},{"price":96,"shares":318,"people":0,"house":318,"total":750.65},{"price":97,"shares":405,"people":0,"house":405,"total":1143.5},{"price":98,"shares":565,"people":0,"house":565,"total":1697.2},{"price":99,"shares":957,"people":0,"house":957,"total":2644.63}],"bids":[{"price":93,"shares":16,"people":0,"house":16,"total":14.88},{"price":92,"shares":196,"people":0,"house":196,"total":195.2},{"price":91,"shares":175,"people":0,"house":175,"total":354.45},{"price":90,"shares":158,"people":0,"house":158,"total":496.65},{"price":89,"shares":145,"people":0,"house":145,"total":625.7},{"price":88,"shares":134,"people":0,"house":134,"total":743.62}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"mid":6.93,"bestBid":6,"bestAsk":7,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":7,"shares":16,"people":0,"house":16,"total":1.12},{"price":8,"shares":196,"people":0,"house":196,"total":16.8},{"price":9,"shares":175,"people":0,"house":175,"total":32.55},{"price":10,"shares":158,"people":0,"house":158,"total":48.35},{"price":11,"shares":145,"people":0,"house":145,"total":64.3},{"price":12,"shares":134,"people":0,"house":134,"total":80.38}],"bids":[{"price":6,"shares":208,"people":0,"house":208,"total":12.48},{"price":5,"shares":263,"people":0,"house":263,"total":25.63},{"price":4,"shares":318,"people":0,"house":318,"total":38.35},{"price":3,"shares":405,"people":0,"house":405,"total":50.5},{"price":2,"shares":565,"people":0,"house":565,"total":61.8},{"price":1,"shares":957,"people":0,"house":957,"total":71.37}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":855,"slug":"plague-pandemic-in-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/plague-pandemic-in-2026","q":"Plague pandemic in 2026?","cat":"science","catName":"Science","emoji":"🔬","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0505,"ref":0.045},{"name":"No","p":0.9495,"ref":0.955}],"chance":0.0505,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/plague-pandemic-in-2026","ref":0.045,"b":1427,"state":[-4260.710832,-73.946781],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791275381,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":107,"slug":"new-pandemic-in-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/new-pandemic-in-2026","q":"New pandemic in 2026?","cat":"science","catName":"Science","emoji":"🔬","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.055,"ref":0.055},{"name":"No","p":0.945,"ref":0.945}],"chance":0.055,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/new-pandemic-in-2026","ref":0.055,"b":4093,"state":[-11871.42763,-231.542449],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232045,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":522,"slug":"more-than-1000-cases-of-irkutsk-plague","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/more-than-1000-cases-of-irkutsk-plague","q":"More than 1000 cases of Irkutsk Plague?","cat":"science","catName":"Science","emoji":"🔬","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.1126,"ref":0.0516},{"name":"No","p":0.8874,"ref":0.9484}],"chance":0.1126,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/JoeandSeth/more-than-1000-cases-of-irkutsk-pla","ref":0.0516,"b":1357,"state":[-2963.78952,-162.078698],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791248965,"closes":1830297540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 11,688","closesWorldDay":11688,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":564,"slug":"will-usgs-record-a-magnitude-6-5-earthquake-from-oct-7-to-oct-13","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-usgs-record-a-magnitude-6-5-earthquake-from-oct-7-to-oct-13","q":"Will USGS record a magnitude 6.5+ earthquake from Oct 7 to Oct 13?","cat":"science","catName":"Science","emoji":"🔬","tags":["earthquakes"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.5034,"ref":0.5034},{"name":"No","p":0.4966,"ref":0.4966}],"chance":0.5034,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"quake","source":"USGS","sourceUrl":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/count?format=geojson&starttime=2026-10-07&endtime=2026-10-14&minmagnitude=6.5","ref":0.5034,"b":1500,"state":[-1029.511504,-1050],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791253286,"closes":1791331200,"closesText":"Oct 6, 8 PM ET · World Day 864","closesWorldDay":864,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":565,"slug":"will-usgs-record-4-or-more-magnitude-5-5-earthquakes-from-oct-7-to-oct-9","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-usgs-record-4-or-more-magnitude-5-5-earthquakes-from-oct-7-to-oct-9","q":"Will USGS record 4 or more magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes from Oct 7 to Oct 9?","cat":"science","catName":"Science","emoji":"🔬","tags":["earthquakes"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.5468,"ref":0.5468},{"name":"No","p":0.4532,"ref":0.4532}],"chance":0.5468,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"quake","source":"USGS","sourceUrl":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/count?format=geojson&starttime=2026-10-07&endtime=2026-10-10&minmagnitude=5.5","ref":0.5468,"b":1500,"state":[-905.636541,-1186.977866],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791253286,"closes":1791331200,"closesText":"Oct 6, 8 PM ET · World Day 864","closesWorldDay":864,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":720,"slug":"will-sls-be-used-for-artemis-3-as-planned","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-sls-be-used-for-artemis-3-as-planned","q":"Will SLS be used for Artemis 3 as planned?","cat":"science","catName":"Science","emoji":"🔬","tags":["space"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.2276,"ref":0.2276},{"name":"No","p":0.7724,"ref":0.7724}],"chance":0.2276,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/YaakovSaxon/will-sls-be-used-for-artemis-3-as-p","ref":0.2276,"b":1454,"state":[-2152.319707,-375.452631],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791263127,"closes":1830383940,"closesText":"Jan 1, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 11,712","closesWorldDay":11712,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}