{"id":524,"slug":"will-charles-schwab-customers-have-access-to-a-prediction-market-on-the-2028-us","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-charles-schwab-customers-have-access-to-a-prediction-market-on-the-2028-us","q":"Will Charles Schwab customers have access to a prediction market on the 2028 US presidential election?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["world-elections","us-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.3061,"ref":0.3061},{"name":"No","p":0.6939,"ref":0.6939}],"chance":0.3061,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/SG/will-charles-schwab-customers-have","ref":0.3061,"b":1413,"state":[-1672.618201,-516.416254],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791248965,"closes":1861948740,"closesText":"Jan 1, 2:59 AM ET · World Day 20,480","closesWorldDay":20480,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"Schwab customers must be able to trade on the election directly through their main brokerage platform (including ThinkOrSwim and other platforms directly owned/operated by Schwab).\n\nThis mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). N/A or canceled there means everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 5, 9:09 PM ET · World Day 842","resolves":1862207940,"resolvesText":"Jan 4, 2:59 AM ET · World Day 20,552","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791248940,"p":[0.3061,0.6939],"r":[0.3061,0.6939]},{"at":1791258407,"p":[0.3061,0.6939],"r":[0.3061,0.6939]}],"book":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"mid":30.61,"bestBid":30,"bestAsk":31,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":31,"shares":26,"people":0,"house":26,"total":8.06},{"price":32,"shares":65,"people":0,"house":65,"total":28.86},{"price":33,"shares":65,"people":0,"house":65,"total":50.31},{"price":34,"shares":63,"people":0,"house":63,"total":71.73},{"price":35,"shares":62,"people":0,"house":62,"total":93.43},{"price":36,"shares":62,"people":0,"house":62,"total":115.75}],"bids":[{"price":30,"shares":41,"people":0,"house":41,"total":12.3},{"price":29,"shares":68,"people":0,"house":68,"total":32.02},{"price":28,"shares":69,"people":0,"house":69,"total":51.34},{"price":27,"shares":71,"people":0,"house":71,"total":70.51},{"price":26,"shares":73,"people":0,"house":73,"total":89.49},{"price":25,"shares":74,"people":0,"house":74,"total":107.99}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"mid":69.39,"bestBid":69,"bestAsk":70,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":70,"shares":41,"people":0,"house":41,"total":28.7},{"price":71,"shares":68,"people":0,"house":68,"total":76.98},{"price":72,"shares":69,"people":0,"house":69,"total":126.66},{"price":73,"shares":71,"people":0,"house":71,"total":178.49},{"price":74,"shares":73,"people":0,"house":73,"total":232.51},{"price":75,"shares":74,"people":0,"house":74,"total":288.01}],"bids":[{"price":69,"shares":26,"people":0,"house":26,"total":17.94},{"price":68,"shares":65,"people":0,"house":65,"total":62.14},{"price":67,"shares":65,"people":0,"house":65,"total":105.69},{"price":66,"shares":63,"people":0,"house":63,"total":147.27},{"price":65,"shares":62,"people":0,"house":62,"total":187.57},{"price":64,"shares":62,"people":0,"house":62,"total":227.25}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":114,"slug":"which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026","q":"Which party will win the House in 2026?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections","world-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Democratic Party","p":0.8657,"ref":0.925},{"name":"Republican Party","p":0.1343,"ref":0.075}],"chance":0.8657,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":1530,"trades":45,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026","ref":0.925,"b":5709,"state":[706.91756,-9931.835248],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232165,"closes":1793768340,"closesText":"Nov 3, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,541","closesWorldDay":1541,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":144,"slug":"next-french-presidential-election-who-wins","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/next-french-presidential-election-who-wins","q":"Next French Presidential Election: who wins?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["world-elections"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Marine Le Pen","p":0.4667,"ref":0.4355},{"name":"Édouard Philippe","p":0.1663,"ref":0.1791},{"name":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","p":0.1124,"ref":0.1279},{"name":"David Lisnard","p":0.1101,"ref":0.1356},{"name":"François Hollande","p":0.0501,"ref":0.0517},{"name":"Gabriel Attal","p":0.0193,"ref":0.022},{"name":"Raphaël Glucksmann","p":0.013,"ref":0.0149},{"name":"Bruno Retailleau","p":0.0112,"ref":0.0128},{"name":"Sarah Knafo","p":0.0094,"ref":0.0097},{"name":"Éric Zemmour","p":0.0085,"ref":0.0097},{"name":"Other","p":0.0328,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.4667,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":761,"trades":16,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election","ref":0.4355,"b":9051.25,"state":[-6137.149748,-15474.470131,-19022.941078,-19205.800833,-26344.454633,-34955.501664,-38520.82783,-39864.214401,-41442.330497,-42348.210901,-30165.043194],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232405,"closes":1808107140,"closesText":"Apr 18, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 5,524","closesWorldDay":5524,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":17,"slug":"putin-out-as-president-of-russia-by-december-31-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/putin-out-as-president-of-russia-by-december-31-2026","q":"Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["world-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0573,"ref":0.033},{"name":"No","p":0.9427,"ref":0.967}],"chance":0.0573,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":1535,"trades":38,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/putin-out-before-2027","ref":0.033,"b":6055,"state":[-15896.346856,1057.378115],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":29,"slug":"balance-of-power-2026-midterms-who-wins","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/balance-of-power-2026-midterms-who-wins","q":"Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: who wins?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections","world-elections"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Democrats Sweep","p":0.6719,"ref":0.6501},{"name":"R Senate, D House","p":0.2448,"ref":0.263},{"name":"Republicans Sweep","p":0.0692,"ref":0.0744},{"name":"D Senate, R House","p":0.0104,"ref":0.0109},{"name":"Other","p":0.0037,"ref":0.0015}],"chance":0.6719,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":647,"trades":9,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/balance-of-power-2026-midterms","ref":0.6501,"b":7367.5,"state":[-2281.59857,-9719.489176,-19034.054992,-32976.156885,-40679.669526],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1793768340,"closesText":"Nov 3, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,541","closesWorldDay":1541,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":77,"slug":"prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election","q":"Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["world-elections"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Gadi Eizenkot","p":0.5023,"ref":0.4888},{"name":"Benjamin Netanyahu","p":0.3545,"ref":0.3704},{"name":"Naftali Bennett","p":0.1029,"ref":0.1096},{"name":"Avigdor Lieberman","p":0.0173,"ref":0.0193},{"name":"Ofer Winter","p":0.0053,"ref":0.0058},{"name":"Itamar Ben Gvir","p":0.0048,"ref":0.0052},{"name":"Other","p":0.0129,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.5023,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":542,"trades":14,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election","ref":0.4888,"b":8067.5,"state":[-5012.562251,-7823.754031,-17801.239172,-32205.99014,-41771.009063,-42539.923939,-34526.86526],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231805,"closes":1793159940,"closesText":"Oct 27, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,372","closesWorldDay":1372,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":182,"slug":"minnesota-senate-election-winner-who-wins","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/minnesota-senate-election-winner-who-wins","q":"Minnesota Senate Election Winner: who wins?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections","world-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Peggy Flanagan (D)","p":0.8081,"ref":0.865},{"name":"Michele Tafoya (R)","p":0.1919,"ref":0.135}],"chance":0.8081,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":1156,"trades":22,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/minnesota-senate-election-winner","ref":0.865,"b":2937,"state":[531.059307,-3692.28523],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791233605,"closes":1793768340,"closesText":"Nov 3, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,541","closesWorldDay":1541,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}