{"id":32,"slug":"will-chatgpt-fall-below-75-of-ai-chatbot-market-share-in-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-chatgpt-fall-below-75-of-ai-chatbot-market-share-in-2026","q":"Will chatGPT fall below 75% of AI Chatbot market share in 2026?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["ai","openai"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.2272,"ref":0.1496},{"name":"No","p":0.7728,"ref":0.8504}],"chance":0.2272,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/Gen/will-chatgpt-fall-below-75-of-ai-ch","ref":0.1496,"b":1554,"state":[-2302.997301,-400.494759],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1798761540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 2,928","closesWorldDay":2928,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"Resolves to this site: AI Chatbot Market Share Worldwide | Statcounter Global Stats\n\nChatGPT has steadily held 80% market share according to that site.\n\nUpdate 2026-02-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Market resolves YES if ChatGPT falls below 75% market share at any point during 2026 (not just at year-end), as measured on the linked Statcounter site for all platforms worldwide.\n\nUpdate 2026-10-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve using the monthly time series from the linked Statcounter site.\n\nThis mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). 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Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}