{"id":545,"slug":"will-democrats-win-a-majority-in-the-u-s-house-of-representatives-in-the-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-democrats-win-a-majority-in-the-u-s-house-of-representatives-in-the-2026","q":"Will Democrats win a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections?","cat":"world","catName":"World","emoji":"🌍","tags":["us-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.9498,"ref":0.9498},{"name":"No","p":0.0502,"ref":0.0502}],"chance":0.9498,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/winnerkarthik/will-democrats-win-a-majority-in-th-E55l2cIcuS","ref":0.9498,"b":1258,"state":[-64.826181,-3762.959557],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791251366,"closes":1793750400,"closesText":"Nov 3, 7 PM ET · World Day 1,536","closesWorldDay":1536,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"Resolution criteria\n\nThe market resolves based on the results of the U.S. House of Representatives elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. The market resolves YES if Democrats win 218 or more seats (a majority of the 435 total seats). The market resolves NO if Republicans win 218 or more seats. Resolution will be determined by official results from the House Clerk's office at https://clerk.house.gov/\n\nBackground\n\nFollowing the 2024 elections, Republicans hold a 220-215 majority in the House. Democrats need to gain a net of three districts to win a majority in the chamber. Republicans can lose no more than two districts to retain a majority.\n\nDemocrats continue to believe the party remains favored to regain the House majority, especially because they need to gain only three seats, far fewer than the opposition party usually wins in midterm elections, especially when the president's job approval rating is as weak as Trump's is now. The president's party almost always loses ground in midterm House elections, as has happened in 20 of the past 22 midterm elections stretching back to 1938.\n\nConsiderations\n\nRepublicans this year are defending an unusually small number of House seats that either voted against President Donald Trump in 2024 or backed him only narrowly, meaning Democrats have fewer easy pickup opportunities against obviously vulnerable targets than is typical for the party out of the White House during a midterm election. House Republicans are defending eight seats that Trump lost in 2024, and 25 more that he carried with a vote total no more than 4 points higher than his national vote share.\n\nThis description was generated by AI.\n\nThis mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). N/A or canceled there means everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 5, 9:49 PM ET · World Day 842","resolves":1794009600,"resolvesText":"Nov 6, 7 PM ET · World Day 1,608","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791251340,"p":[0.9498,0.0502],"r":[0.9498,0.0502]},{"at":1791264060,"p":[0.9498,0.0502],"r":[0.9498,0.0502]},{"at":1791274860,"p":[0.9498,0.0502],"r":[0.9498,0.0502]},{"at":1791279258,"p":[0.9498,0.0502],"r":[0.9498,0.0502]}],"book":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"mid":94.98,"bestBid":94,"bestAsk":95,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":95,"shares":6,"people":0,"house":6,"total":5.7},{"price":96,"shares":294,"people":0,"house":294,"total":287.94},{"price":97,"shares":375,"people":0,"house":375,"total":651.69},{"price":98,"shares":523,"people":0,"house":523,"total":1164.23},{"price":99,"shares":885,"people":0,"house":885,"total":2040.38}],"bids":[{"price":94,"shares":237,"people":0,"house":237,"total":222.78},{"price":93,"shares":207,"people":0,"house":207,"total":415.29},{"price":92,"shares":182,"people":0,"house":182,"total":582.73},{"price":91,"shares":162,"people":0,"house":162,"total":730.15},{"price":90,"shares":146,"people":0,"house":146,"total":861.55},{"price":89,"shares":134,"people":0,"house":134,"total":980.81}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"mid":5.02,"bestBid":5,"bestAsk":6,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":6,"shares":237,"people":0,"house":237,"total":14.22},{"price":7,"shares":207,"people":0,"house":207,"total":28.71},{"price":8,"shares":182,"people":0,"house":182,"total":43.27},{"price":9,"shares":162,"people":0,"house":162,"total":57.85},{"price":10,"shares":146,"people":0,"house":146,"total":72.45},{"price":11,"shares":134,"people":0,"house":134,"total":87.19}],"bids":[{"price":5,"shares":6,"people":0,"house":6,"total":0.3},{"price":4,"shares":294,"people":0,"house":294,"total":12.06},{"price":3,"shares":375,"people":0,"house":375,"total":23.31},{"price":2,"shares":523,"people":0,"house":523,"total":33.77},{"price":1,"shares":885,"people":0,"house":885,"total":42.62}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":29,"slug":"balance-of-power-2026-midterms-who-wins","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/balance-of-power-2026-midterms-who-wins","q":"Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: who wins?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections","world-elections"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Democrats Sweep","p":0.6092,"ref":0.6508},{"name":"R Senate, D House","p":0.3206,"ref":0.2633},{"name":"Republicans Sweep","p":0.0583,"ref":0.0745},{"name":"D Senate, R House","p":0.0088,"ref":0.0104},{"name":"Other","p":0.0031,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.6092,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":1904,"trades":16,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/balance-of-power-2026-midterms","ref":0.6508,"b":7367.5,"state":[-1746.59857,-6475.489176,-19034.054992,-32976.156885,-40679.669526],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1793768340,"closesText":"Nov 3, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,541","closesWorldDay":1541,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":114,"slug":"which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026","q":"Which party will win the House in 2026?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections","world-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Democratic Party","p":0.8616,"ref":0.925},{"name":"Republican Party","p":0.1384,"ref":0.075}],"chance":0.8616,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":1914,"trades":57,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026","ref":0.925,"b":5709,"state":[1063.91756,-9375.835248],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232165,"closes":1793768340,"closesText":"Nov 3, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,541","closesWorldDay":1541,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":182,"slug":"minnesota-senate-election-winner-who-wins","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/minnesota-senate-election-winner-who-wins","q":"Minnesota Senate Election Winner: who wins?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections","world-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Peggy Flanagan (D)","p":0.8032,"ref":0.88},{"name":"Michele Tafoya (R)","p":0.1968,"ref":0.12}],"chance":0.8032,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":2159,"trades":54,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/minnesota-senate-election-winner","ref":0.88,"b":2937,"state":[1516.059307,-2615.28523],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791233605,"closes":1793768340,"closesText":"Nov 3, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,541","closesWorldDay":1541,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":279,"slug":"south-carolina-senate-election-winner-who-wins","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/south-carolina-senate-election-winner-who-wins","q":"South Carolina Senate Election Winner: who wins?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections","world-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Darline Graham Nordone (R)","p":0.8004,"ref":0.845},{"name":"Annie Andrews (D)","p":0.1996,"ref":0.155}],"chance":0.8004,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":355,"trades":11,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/south-carolina-senate-election-winner","ref":0.845,"b":3725,"state":[-474.535442,-5647.055224],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791236845,"closes":1793768340,"closesText":"Nov 3, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,541","closesWorldDay":1541,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":153,"slug":"presidential-election-winner-2028-who-wins","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/presidential-election-winner-2028-who-wins","q":"Presidential Election Winner 2028: who wins?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections","world-elections"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"JD Vance","p":0.2227,"ref":0.2664},{"name":"Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez","p":0.1541,"ref":0.1977},{"name":"Jon Ossoff","p":0.1141,"ref":0.1355},{"name":"Marco Rubio","p":0.0978,"ref":0.1173},{"name":"Gavin Newsom","p":0.087,"ref":0.1044},{"name":"Kamala Harris","p":0.0497,"ref":0.059},{"name":"Josh Shapiro","p":0.033,"ref":0.0396},{"name":"Pete Buttigieg","p":0.0297,"ref":0.0356},{"name":"Andy Beshear","p":0.0189,"ref":0.0208},{"name":"Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson","p":0.0189,"ref":0.0227},{"name":"Other","p":0.1741,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.2227,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2028","ref":0.2664,"b":10000,"state":[-15019.175687,-18704.517378,-21710.827846,-23244.438868,-24415.365531,-30011.52341,-34120.670539,-35156.077328,-39675.928566,-39675.928566,-17483.893725],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232885,"closes":1857272340,"closesText":"Nov 7, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 19,181","closesWorldDay":19181,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":112,"slug":"democratic-presidential-nominee-2028-who-wins","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028-who-wins","q":"Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028: who wins?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections","world-elections"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez","p":0.1952,"ref":0.2304},{"name":"Gavin Newsom","p":0.1697,"ref":0.2009},{"name":"Jon Ossoff","p":0.1615,"ref":0.192},{"name":"Kamala Harris","p":0.0718,"ref":0.0912},{"name":"Josh Shapiro","p":0.0647,"ref":0.0815},{"name":"Pete Buttigieg","p":0.0549,"ref":0.0649},{"name":"Andy Beshear","p":0.0332,"ref":0.0405},{"name":"James Talarico","p":0.0321,"ref":0.0386},{"name":"Mark Kelly","p":0.0277,"ref":0.0327},{"name":"Wes Moore","p":0.0223,"ref":0.0263},{"name":"Other","p":0.1669,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.1952,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028","ref":0.2304,"b":10000,"state":[-16336.548361,-17739.740368,-18232.450858,-26341.75302,-27378.537315,-29018.567078,-34061.033604,-34394.397807,-35851.515919,-38034.051579,-17901.29477],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232045,"closes":1857272340,"closesText":"Nov 7, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 19,181","closesWorldDay":19181,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}