{"id":477,"slug":"will-elon-musk-be-worth-2-0t-or-more-before-2028","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-elon-musk-be-worth-2-0t-or-more-before-2028","q":"Will Elon Musk be worth $2.0t or more before 2028?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":["elon-musk","us-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.217,"ref":0.3226},{"name":"No","p":0.783,"ref":0.6774}],"chance":0.217,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/Jack1/will-elon-musk-be-worth-20t-or-more","ref":0.3226,"b":1163,"state":[-1776.793525,-284.525233],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791244165,"closes":1830297540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 11,688","closesWorldDay":11688,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"Resolves yes if Bloomberg or Forbes show Elon Musk has a net worth of $2t or more on their rich lists before 11.59pm December 31 2027 EST.\n\nOne or both of them showing Elon Musk is worth $2t+ will resolve this market to yes.\n\nThis mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). N/A or canceled there means everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 5, 7:49 PM ET · World Day 840","resolves":1830556740,"resolvesText":"Jan 3, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 11,760","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791244140,"p":[0.217,0.783],"r":[0.217,0.783]},{"at":1791256860,"p":[0.217,0.783],"r":[0.217,0.783]},{"at":1791267180,"p":[0.217,0.783],"r":[0.3226,0.6774]},{"at":1791269734,"p":[0.217,0.783],"r":[0.3226,0.6774]}],"book":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"mid":21.7,"bestBid":21,"bestAsk":22,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":22,"shares":20,"people":0,"house":20,"total":4.4},{"price":23,"shares":67,"people":0,"house":67,"total":19.81},{"price":24,"shares":65,"people":0,"house":65,"total":35.41},{"price":25,"shares":63,"people":0,"house":63,"total":51.16},{"price":26,"shares":61,"people":0,"house":61,"total":67.02},{"price":27,"shares":60,"people":0,"house":60,"total":83.22}],"bids":[{"price":21,"shares":49,"people":0,"house":49,"total":10.29},{"price":20,"shares":71,"people":0,"house":71,"total":24.49},{"price":19,"shares":74,"people":0,"house":74,"total":38.55},{"price":18,"shares":77,"people":0,"house":77,"total":52.41},{"price":17,"shares":81,"people":0,"house":81,"total":66.18},{"price":16,"shares":84,"people":0,"house":84,"total":79.62}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"mid":78.3,"bestBid":78,"bestAsk":79,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":79,"shares":49,"people":0,"house":49,"total":38.71},{"price":80,"shares":71,"people":0,"house":71,"total":95.51},{"price":81,"shares":74,"people":0,"house":74,"total":155.45},{"price":82,"shares":77,"people":0,"house":77,"total":218.59},{"price":83,"shares":81,"people":0,"house":81,"total":285.82},{"price":84,"shares":84,"people":0,"house":84,"total":356.38}],"bids":[{"price":78,"shares":20,"people":0,"house":20,"total":15.6},{"price":77,"shares":67,"people":0,"house":67,"total":67.19},{"price":76,"shares":65,"people":0,"house":65,"total":116.59},{"price":75,"shares":63,"people":0,"house":63,"total":163.84},{"price":74,"shares":61,"people":0,"house":61,"total":208.98},{"price":73,"shares":60,"people":0,"house":60,"total":252.78}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":138,"slug":"will-spacexai-officially-rename-itself-to-spacexsi-by-october-15","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-spacexai-officially-rename-itself-to-spacexsi-by-october-15","q":"Will SpaceXAI officially rename itself to SpaceXSI by October 15?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["ai","spacex","elon-musk"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.205,"ref":0.215},{"name":"No","p":0.795,"ref":0.785}],"chance":0.205,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-spacexai-officially-rename-itself-to-spacexsi-byptptpt","ref":0.215,"b":1511,"state":[-2394.550148,-346.643291],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232405,"closes":1792123140,"closesText":"Oct 15, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,084","closesWorldDay":1084,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":28,"slug":"fed-decision-in-october","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/fed-decision-in-october","q":"Fed Decision in October?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":["fed"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"No change","p":0.7966,"ref":0.7985},{"name":"25 bps increase","p":0.1917,"ref":0.1935},{"name":"50+ bps increase","p":0.0042,"ref":0.0035},{"name":"25 bps decrease","p":0.0037,"ref":0.0035},{"name":"Other","p":0.0037,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.7966,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":496,"trades":14,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537","ref":0.7985,"b":7670,"state":[-1247.962359,-12174.269934,-41465.482841,-42353.554044,-42353.554044],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1793246340,"closesText":"Oct 28, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,396","closesWorldDay":1396,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":16,"slug":"strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31","q":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.1977,"ref":0.185},{"name":"No","p":0.8023,"ref":0.815}],"chance":0.1977,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":1034,"trades":28,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31","ref":0.185,"b":5728,"state":[-8251.424072,-226.760725],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":24,"slug":"bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-october-31","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-october-31","q":"Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.094,"ref":0.055},{"name":"No","p":0.906,"ref":0.945}],"chance":0.094,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":1403,"trades":34,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by","ref":0.055,"b":4032,"state":[-8212.501882,923.908343],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1793505540,"closesText":"Oct 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,468","closesWorldDay":1468,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":57,"slug":"will-crude-oil-reach-a-new-all-time-high-by-december-31","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-crude-oil-reach-a-new-all-time-high-by-december-31","q":"Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.1513,"ref":0.095},{"name":"No","p":0.8487,"ref":0.905}],"chance":0.1513,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":278,"trades":12,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/crude-oil-all-time-high-by","ref":0.095,"b":4327,"state":[-7892.231782,-431.922591],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231805,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":160,"slug":"xi-jinping-out-before-2027","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/xi-jinping-out-before-2027","q":"Xi Jinping out before 2027?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0449,"ref":0.0245},{"name":"No","p":0.9551,"ref":0.9755}],"chance":0.0449,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":148,"trades":9,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/xi-jinping-out-before-2027","ref":0.0245,"b":5738,"state":[-17683.713442,-142.331772],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791233005,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}