{"id":589,"slug":"will-elon-musk-win-the-nobel-peace-prize","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-elon-musk-win-the-nobel-peace-prize","q":"Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["elon-musk","us-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0322,"ref":0.0322},{"name":"No","p":0.9678,"ref":0.9678}],"chance":0.0322,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/JeffBerman/will-elon-musk-win-the-nobel-peace","ref":0.0322,"b":1770,"state":[-6083.044854,-57.875302],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791256407,"closes":1863665940,"closesText":"Jan 20, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 20,957","closesWorldDay":20957,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"Elon Musk has been nominated for the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts in promoting free speech. The nomination was proposed by Branko Grims, a Slovenian Member of the European Parliament, highlighting Musk's global advocacy.\n\nUpdate 2025-01-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria:\n\nThe market will resolve no later than the end of Trump’s 2nd term.\n\nThis mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). N/A or canceled there means everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 5, 11:13 PM ET · World Day 844","resolves":1863925140,"resolvesText":"Jan 23, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 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SpaceXAI officially rename itself to SpaceXSI by October 15?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["ai","spacex","elon-musk"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.205,"ref":0.215},{"name":"No","p":0.795,"ref":0.785}],"chance":0.205,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-spacexai-officially-rename-itself-to-spacexsi-byptptpt","ref":0.215,"b":1511,"state":[-2394.550148,-346.643291],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232405,"closes":1792123140,"closesText":"Oct 15, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,084","closesWorldDay":1084,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":114,"slug":"which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026","q":"Which party will win the House in 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ET · World Day 5,524","closesWorldDay":5524,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":128,"slug":"friedrich-merz-out-as-chancellor-of-germany-before-december-31-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/friedrich-merz-out-as-chancellor-of-germany-before-december-31-2026","q":"Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0802,"ref":0.07},{"name":"No","p":0.9198,"ref":0.93}],"chance":0.0802,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":2674,"trades":30,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/friedrich-merz-out-as-chancellor-of-germany-before-2027","ref":0.07,"b":4528,"state":[-8753.129447,2296.399903],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232405,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":77,"slug":"prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election","q":"Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["world-elections"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Gadi Eizenkot","p":0.5122,"ref":0.4844},{"name":"Benjamin Netanyahu","p":0.3474,"ref":0.3643},{"name":"Naftali Bennett","p":0.1009,"ref":0.1077},{"name":"Avigdor Lieberman","p":0.0169,"ref":0.019},{"name":"Ofer Winter","p":0.0052,"ref":0.0056},{"name":"Itamar Ben 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Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}