{"id":577,"slug":"will-gemini-4-argon-be-released-publicly-before-october-15","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-gemini-4-argon-be-released-publicly-before-october-15","q":"Will Gemini 4 Argon be released publicly before October 15","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["ai"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.6514,"ref":0.662},{"name":"No","p":0.3486,"ref":0.338}],"chance":0.6514,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/HumanClanker/will-gemini-4-argon-be-released-pub","ref":0.662,"b":983,"state":[-421.39166,-1035.827201],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791255207,"closes":1792022340,"closesText":"Oct 14, 7:59 PM ET · World Day 1,056","closesWorldDay":1056,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"Resolution criteria\n\nThis market resolves to YES if Google makes its Gemini 4 Argon model publicly available to individual developers or consumers on or before October 14, 2026, at 11:59 PM PT. Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.\n\nTo qualify as publicly available, ordinary individual users must be able to obtain access without being individually selected, invited, vetted, or approved by Google. Qualified access pathways include:\n\nDeveloper Access: Available via Google AI Studio, the Gemini API, or Google Cloud Vertex AI for any registered developer.\n\nConsumer Access: Offered via a generally available consumer subscription (e.g., Google AI Advanced, Google AI Ultra, or a successor tier) on the Gemini web or mobile interface.\n\nExclusions and Edge Cases:\n\nAccess does not qualify if it remains restricted to enterprise customers, select companies, private-preview cohorts, trusted testers, or members of specific closed initiatives such as Google's Fairwind program.\n\nPaid subscriptions or paid API usage qualify as public access, as long as any ordinary user can sign up and pay.\n\nGeographic restrictions will not prevent a YES resolution, provided ordinary individual users in at least one supported region can obtain unvetted access.\n\nThe model must be functionally accessible and interactive by the deadline; a mere announcement of a future release date does not suffice.\n\nBackground\n\nGoogle announced its next-generation frontier AI model, Gemini 4 Argon, on September 30, 2026. Engineered for complex reasoning, multi-step software engineering (scoring 77.9% on DeepSWE v1.1), and defensive cybersecurity, the model boasts a massive 1-million-token output capacity.\n\nAt launch, Google made Gemini 4 Argon available exclusively to trusted testers and select cybersecurity partners thro\n\nThis mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). N/A or canceled there means everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 5, 10:53 PM ET · World Day 843","resolves":1792281540,"resolvesText":"Oct 17, 7:59 PM ET · World Day 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Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}