{"id":196,"slug":"will-irans-regime-fall-in-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-irans-regime-fall-in-2026","q":"Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?","cat":"world","catName":"World","emoji":"🌍","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0442,"ref":0.0456},{"name":"No","p":0.9558,"ref":0.9544}],"chance":0.0442,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/Plant/will-irans-regime-fall-in-2026","ref":0.0456,"b":2895,"state":[-9030.264603,-130.842045],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791234085,"closes":1798761540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 2,928","closesWorldDay":2928,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM Pacific Time (PT), the Islamic Republic of Iran is no longer the governing regime of Iran.\n\nThis includes scenarios in which the regime is overthrown, collapses, or otherwise ceases to govern, and a fundamentally different system replaces it. Qualifying scenarios may include:\n\nRevolution\n\nCivil war\n\nMilitary coup\n\nVoluntary abdication of power\n\nEstablishment of a new constitutional order, provisional government, or revolutionary authority\n\nTo qualify, there must be a broad consensus among credible international media (e.g. Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT) that the core institutions of the Islamic Republic, such as the Supreme Leader, Guardian Council, or IRGC under clerical control, have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced, and that the regime has lost sovereign authority over the majority of the population within Iran.\n\nUpdate 2026-03-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Both conditions must be met for YES resolution:\n\nThe core institutions of the Islamic Republic (Supreme Leader, Guardian Council, or IRGC under clerical control) must be dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced AND\n\nThe regime must have lost sovereign authority over the majority of the population\n\nExample of NO resolution: A Syrian civil war-style scenario where the regime still exists but no longer controls the entire country would resolve NO, because the regime institutions remain intact even if territorial control is reduced.\n\nThis mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). N/A or canceled there means everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 5, 5:01 PM ET · World Day 838","resolves":1799020740,"resolvesText":"Jan 3, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 3,000","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791234060,"p":[0.0442,0.9558],"r":[0.0442,0.9558]},{"at":1791246060,"p":[0.0442,0.9558],"r":[0.0456,0.9544]},{"at":1791252511,"p":[0.0442,0.9558],"r":[0.0456,0.9544]}],"book":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"mid":4.42,"bestBid":4,"bestAsk":5,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":5,"shares":375,"people":0,"house":375,"total":18.75},{"price":6,"shares":559,"people":0,"house":559,"total":52.29},{"price":7,"shares":477,"people":0,"house":477,"total":85.68},{"price":8,"shares":418,"people":0,"house":418,"total":119.12},{"price":9,"shares":372,"people":0,"house":372,"total":152.6},{"price":10,"shares":337,"people":0,"house":337,"total":186.3}],"bids":[{"price":4,"shares":301,"people":0,"house":301,"total":12.04},{"price":3,"shares":863,"people":0,"house":863,"total":37.93},{"price":2,"shares":1203,"people":0,"house":1203,"total":61.99},{"price":1,"shares":2036,"people":0,"house":2036,"total":82.35}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"mid":95.58,"bestBid":95,"bestAsk":96,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":96,"shares":301,"people":0,"house":301,"total":288.96},{"price":97,"shares":863,"people":0,"house":863,"total":1126.07},{"price":98,"shares":1203,"people":0,"house":1203,"total":2305.01},{"price":99,"shares":2036,"people":0,"house":2036,"total":4320.65}],"bids":[{"price":95,"shares":375,"people":0,"house":375,"total":356.25},{"price":94,"shares":559,"people":0,"house":559,"total":881.71},{"price":93,"shares":477,"people":0,"house":477,"total":1325.32},{"price":92,"shares":418,"people":0,"house":418,"total":1709.88},{"price":91,"shares":372,"people":0,"house":372,"total":2048.4},{"price":90,"shares":337,"people":0,"house":337,"total":2351.7}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":95,"slug":"us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-october-31-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-october-31-2026","q":"US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?","cat":"world","catName":"World","emoji":"🌍","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0631,"ref":0.0225},{"name":"No","p":0.9369,"ref":0.9775}],"chance":0.0631,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":1215,"trades":29,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-20260621201254412/us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-october-31-2026","ref":0.0225,"b":3794,"state":[-9379.639617,853.252394],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232045,"closes":1793505540,"closesText":"Oct 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,468","closesWorldDay":1468,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":106,"slug":"us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-december-31-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-december-31-2026","q":"US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?","cat":"world","catName":"World","emoji":"🌍","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.1724,"ref":0.125},{"name":"No","p":0.8276,"ref":0.875}],"chance":0.1724,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":368,"trades":13,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-20260621201254412/us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-december-31-2026-191","ref":0.125,"b":4794,"state":[-8058.842751,-539.149496],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232045,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":21,"slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-31","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-31","q":"Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?","cat":"world","catName":"World","emoji":"🌍","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.8137,"ref":0.835},{"name":"No","p":0.1863,"ref":0.165}],"chance":0.8137,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":286,"trades":11,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt-20260716224448963","ref":0.835,"b":4181,"state":[-575.93278,-6738.366795],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1793478540,"closesText":"Oct 31, 4:29 PM ET · World Day 1,461","closesWorldDay":1461,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":526,"slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-december-31","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-december-31","q":"Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?","cat":"world","catName":"World","emoji":"🌍","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.605,"ref":0.605},{"name":"No","p":0.395,"ref":0.395}],"chance":0.605,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt-20260716224448963","ref":0.605,"b":3932,"state":[-1975.93546,-3652.314929],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791249205,"closes":1798748940,"closesText":"Dec 31, 3:29 PM ET · World Day 2,925","closesWorldDay":2925,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":108,"slug":"saudi-houthi-ceasefire-agreement-announced-by-october-31","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/saudi-houthi-ceasefire-agreement-announced-by-october-31","q":"Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?","cat":"world","catName":"World","emoji":"🌍","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.135,"ref":0.105},{"name":"No","p":0.865,"ref":0.895}],"chance":0.135,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/saudi-houthi-ceasefire-agreement-announced-by","ref":0.105,"b":2339,"state":[-4683.801891,-339.215281],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232045,"closes":1793505540,"closesText":"Oct 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,468","closesWorldDay":1468,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":94,"slug":"will-the-uss-george-washington-depart-centcom-by-november-30-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-the-uss-george-washington-depart-centcom-by-november-30-2026","q":"Will the USS George Washington depart CENTCOM by November 30, 2026?","cat":"world","catName":"World","emoji":"🌍","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.67,"ref":0.645},{"name":"No","p":0.33,"ref":0.355}],"chance":0.67,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/uss-george-washington-departs-centcom-byptptpt","ref":0.645,"b":1664,"state":[-666.394671,-1844.814607],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232045,"closes":1796101140,"closesText":"Nov 30, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,189","closesWorldDay":2189,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}