{"id":346,"slug":"will-jd-vance-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-jd-vance-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election","q":"Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["world-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.2072,"ref":0.2072},{"name":"No","p":0.7928,"ref":0.7928}],"chance":0.2072,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-jd-vance-win-the-2028-us-presi","ref":0.2072,"b":2478,"state":[-3900.105327,-575.468226],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791239125,"closes":1857275940,"closesText":"Nov 8, 12:59 AM ET · World Day 19,182","closesWorldDay":19182,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"This mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). N/A or canceled there means everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 5, 6:25 PM ET · World Day 839","resolves":1857535140,"resolvesText":"Nov 11, 12:59 AM ET · World Day 19,254","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791239100,"p":[0.2072,0.7928],"r":[0.2072,0.7928]},{"at":1791253260,"p":[0.2072,0.7928],"r":[0.2072,0.7928]},{"at":1791255945,"p":[0.2072,0.7928],"r":[0.2072,0.7928]}],"book":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"mid":20.72,"bestBid":20,"bestAsk":21,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":21,"shares":41,"people":0,"house":41,"total":8.61},{"price":22,"shares":147,"people":0,"house":147,"total":40.95},{"price":23,"shares":142,"people":0,"house":142,"total":73.61},{"price":24,"shares":138,"people":0,"house":138,"total":106.73},{"price":25,"shares":134,"people":0,"house":134,"total":140.23},{"price":26,"shares":131,"people":0,"house":131,"total":174.29}],"bids":[{"price":20,"shares":111,"people":0,"house":111,"total":22.2},{"price":19,"shares":157,"people":0,"house":157,"total":52.03},{"price":18,"shares":165,"people":0,"house":165,"total":81.73},{"price":17,"shares":172,"people":0,"house":172,"total":110.97},{"price":16,"shares":179,"people":0,"house":179,"total":139.61},{"price":15,"shares":190,"people":0,"house":190,"total":168.11}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"mid":79.28,"bestBid":79,"bestAsk":80,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":80,"shares":111,"people":0,"house":111,"total":88.8},{"price":81,"shares":157,"people":0,"house":157,"total":215.97},{"price":82,"shares":165,"people":0,"house":165,"total":351.27},{"price":83,"shares":172,"people":0,"house":172,"total":494.03},{"price":84,"shares":179,"people":0,"house":179,"total":644.39},{"price":85,"shares":190,"people":0,"house":190,"total":805.89}],"bids":[{"price":79,"shares":41,"people":0,"house":41,"total":32.39},{"price":78,"shares":147,"people":0,"house":147,"total":147.05},{"price":77,"shares":142,"people":0,"house":142,"total":256.39},{"price":76,"shares":138,"people":0,"house":138,"total":361.27},{"price":75,"shares":134,"people":0,"house":134,"total":461.77},{"price":74,"shares":131,"people":0,"house":131,"total":558.71}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":114,"slug":"which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026","q":"Which party will win the House in 2026?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections","world-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Democratic Party","p":0.8624,"ref":0.925},{"name":"Republican Party","p":0.1376,"ref":0.075}],"chance":0.8624,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":1389,"trades":40,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026","ref":0.925,"b":5709,"state":[543.91756,-9931.835248],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232165,"closes":1793768340,"closesText":"Nov 3, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,541","closesWorldDay":1541,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":144,"slug":"next-french-presidential-election-who-wins","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/next-french-presidential-election-who-wins","q":"Next French Presidential Election: who wins?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["world-elections"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Marine Le Pen","p":0.4647,"ref":0.4355},{"name":"Édouard Philippe","p":0.167,"ref":0.1791},{"name":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","p":0.1128,"ref":0.1279},{"name":"David Lisnard","p":0.1106,"ref":0.1356},{"name":"François Hollande","p":0.0502,"ref":0.0517},{"name":"Gabriel Attal","p":0.0194,"ref":0.022},{"name":"Raphaël Glucksmann","p":0.0131,"ref":0.0149},{"name":"Bruno Retailleau","p":0.0113,"ref":0.0128},{"name":"Sarah Knafo","p":0.0095,"ref":0.0097},{"name":"Éric Zemmour","p":0.0086,"ref":0.0097},{"name":"Other","p":0.0329,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.4647,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":727,"trades":15,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election","ref":0.4355,"b":9051.25,"state":[-6209.149748,-15474.470131,-19022.941078,-19205.800833,-26344.454633,-34955.501664,-38520.82783,-39864.214401,-41442.330497,-42348.210901,-30165.043194],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232405,"closes":1808107140,"closesText":"Apr 18, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 5,524","closesWorldDay":5524,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":17,"slug":"putin-out-as-president-of-russia-by-december-31-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/putin-out-as-president-of-russia-by-december-31-2026","q":"Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["world-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0548,"ref":0.033},{"name":"No","p":0.9452,"ref":0.967}],"chance":0.0548,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":1269,"trades":32,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/putin-out-before-2027","ref":0.033,"b":6055,"state":[-16436.346856,807.378115],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":29,"slug":"balance-of-power-2026-midterms-who-wins","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/balance-of-power-2026-midterms-who-wins","q":"Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: who wins?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections","world-elections"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Democrats Sweep","p":0.6719,"ref":0.6498},{"name":"R Senate, D House","p":0.2448,"ref":0.2629},{"name":"Republicans Sweep","p":0.0692,"ref":0.0744},{"name":"D Senate, R House","p":0.0104,"ref":0.0114},{"name":"Other","p":0.0037,"ref":0.0015}],"chance":0.6719,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":647,"trades":9,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/balance-of-power-2026-midterms","ref":0.6498,"b":7367.5,"state":[-2281.59857,-9719.489176,-19034.054992,-32976.156885,-40679.669526],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1793768340,"closesText":"Nov 3, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,541","closesWorldDay":1541,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":77,"slug":"prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election","q":"Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["world-elections"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Gadi Eizenkot","p":0.4993,"ref":0.4888},{"name":"Benjamin Netanyahu","p":0.3567,"ref":0.3704},{"name":"Naftali Bennett","p":0.1036,"ref":0.1096},{"name":"Avigdor Lieberman","p":0.0174,"ref":0.0193},{"name":"Ofer Winter","p":0.0053,"ref":0.0058},{"name":"Itamar Ben Gvir","p":0.0048,"ref":0.0052},{"name":"Other","p":0.013,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.4993,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":493,"trades":12,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election","ref":0.4888,"b":8067.5,"state":[-5110.562251,-7823.754031,-17801.239172,-32205.99014,-41771.009063,-42539.923939,-34526.86526],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231805,"closes":1793159940,"closesText":"Oct 27, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,372","closesWorldDay":1372,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":182,"slug":"minnesota-senate-election-winner-who-wins","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/minnesota-senate-election-winner-who-wins","q":"Minnesota Senate Election Winner: who wins?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections","world-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Peggy Flanagan (D)","p":0.8178,"ref":0.865},{"name":"Michele Tafoya (R)","p":0.1822,"ref":0.135}],"chance":0.8178,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":1121,"trades":21,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/minnesota-senate-election-winner","ref":0.865,"b":2937,"state":[531.059307,-3879.28523],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791233605,"closes":1793768340,"closesText":"Nov 3, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,541","closesWorldDay":1541,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}