{"id":466,"slug":"will-miguel-diaz-canel-be-leader-of-cuba-on-january-1st-2027","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-miguel-diaz-canel-be-leader-of-cuba-on-january-1st-2027","q":"Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be leader of Cuba on January 1st 2027?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.741,"ref":0.741},{"name":"No","p":0.259,"ref":0.259}],"chance":0.741,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/Tetraspace/will-miguel-diazcanel-be-leader-of","ref":0.741,"b":1703,"state":[-510.380813,-2300.919082],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791243445,"closes":1798761600,"closesText":"Dec 31, 7 PM ET · World Day 2,928","closesWorldDay":2928,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"The leader is whoever the de facto leader of Cuba is, regardless of their specific job title. Currently this is First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba Miguel Díaz-Canel.\n\nIf there is a complicated messy civil war, this goes by who controls the capital and governing apparatus. I intend to go by a similar standard to the late CIA World Factbook (RIP) or the Wikipedia infobox, though I don't commit to matching them if they're outdated or inaccurate.\n\nThis mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). 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2026?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0956,"ref":0.07},{"name":"No","p":0.9044,"ref":0.93}],"chance":0.0956,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":1739,"trades":17,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/friedrich-merz-out-as-chancellor-of-germany-before-2027","ref":0.07,"b":4528,"state":[-8888.129447,1284.399903],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232405,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":77,"slug":"prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election","q":"Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["world-elections"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Gadi 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Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}