{"id":815,"slug":"will-miles-brundage-win-his-bet-with-gary-marcus","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-miles-brundage-win-his-bet-with-gary-marcus","q":"Will Miles Brundage win his bet with Gary Marcus?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["ai"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.3252,"ref":0.3252},{"name":"No","p":0.6748,"ref":0.6748}],"chance":0.3252,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/dreev/will-miles-brundage-win-his-bet-wit","ref":0.3252,"b":1969,"state":[-2211.801348,-774.487093],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791272501,"closes":1830326340,"closesText":"Jan 1, 2:59 AM ET · World Day 11,696","closesWorldDay":11696,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"Miles Brundage, former head of policy research at OpenAI, and Gary Marcus, NYU neuroscientist, have made a public bet about AI progress (details on Gary Marcus's Substack) that we will not see AGI by the end of 2027. They're operationalizing that as 8 out of the following 10 things being feasible in principle by AI:\n\nUnderstand everything about a new movie that a human does, just by watching it.\n\nSame but for novels.\n\nWrite hallucination-free biographies/obituaries of New York Times quality.\n\nMaster almost any new video game as fast as a human can.\n\nWrite hallucination-free human-level legal briefs.\n\nWrite 10k original bug-free lines of code from a spec or dialog with a nontechnical user.\n\nWrite Pulitzer-caliber fiction and non-fiction books.\n\nWrite Oscar-caliber screenplays.\n\nMake paradigm-shifting, Nobel-caliber scientific discoveries.\n\nFor any math proof expressible in current Lean, convert it to lean from natural language.\n\nThis market resolves however Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage resolve their wager.\n\nRelated Links\n\nhttps://manifold.markets/LovkushAgarwal/possible-outcomes-of-the-bet-on-ai (version of this market with each of the 10 tasks predicted separately)\n\nhttps://www.metaculus.com/questions/31246/2027-ai-bet-winner-between-gary-marcus-and-miles-brundage/ (Metaculus's version of this market)\n\nhttps://milesbrundage.substack.com/p/times-up-for-ai-policy (article that prompted Gary Marcus to challenge Miles Brundage to a wager)\n\nhttps://garymarcus.substack.com/p/superhuman-agi-is-not-nigh (older post laying out Gary Marcus's AGI timelines)\n\nhttps://x.com/Miles_Brundage/status/1870642568121462791 (original hashing out of the wager)\n\nhttps://x.com/GaryMarcus/status/1873766399618785646 (summary of the wager)\n\nhttps://garymarcus.substack.com/p/where-will-ai-be-at-t\n\nThis mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). N/A or canceled there means everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 6, 3:41 AM ET · World Day 848","resolves":1830585540,"resolvesText":"Jan 4, 2:59 AM ET · World Day 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Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}