{"id":482,"slug":"will-openai-and-xai-have-an-ipo-in-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-openai-and-xai-have-an-ipo-in-2026","q":"Will OpenAI AND xAI have an IPO in 2026?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["ai","openai"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0317,"ref":0.0317},{"name":"No","p":0.9683,"ref":0.9683}],"chance":0.0317,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/XBot/will-openai-and-xai-have-an-ipo-in","ref":0.0317,"b":895,"state":[-3089.200656,-28.825584],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791244405,"closes":1798761540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 2,928","closesWorldDay":2928,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"Resolution criteria\n\nThis market resolves YES if both OpenAI AND xAI complete initial public offerings (IPOs) and begin trading on a major U.S. stock exchange (NYSE or Nasdaq) on or before December 31, 2026. Resolution is based on official SEC filings and exchange announcements. The market resolves NO if either company fails to complete an IPO by the deadline.\n\nBackground\n\nOpenAI was reportedly planning an IPO of up to $1 trillion as early as late 2026, though OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar said last month that a listing is \"not in the near-term plan.\" OpenAI has been in early discussions with top law firms, including Cooley, about a potential public listing, and at least some capital could come via an initial public offering it is reportedly planning for as soon as the second half of 2026.\n\nFor xAI, two xAI investors said a listing could occur as soon as late 2026 or the first half of 2027, though they acknowledged the timing is uncertain. xAI CEO Linda Yaccarino emphasized that it is still too early to discuss a timeline for an IPO, as xAI is only two years old.\n\nConsiderations\n\nBoth companies face structural headwinds. OpenAI's IPO documents revealed it was losing a dollar for nearly every dollar it recorded in sales, was burning through cash at a rapid rate, and had billions of dollars in future commitments. Musk has clashed with regulators in the past and tends to favor the privacy of private capital markets, factors that may delay any IPO. Investors also noted that Musk's polarizing reputation could be a liability in public markets. Additionally, plans could still change if major political or economic problems arise.\n\nUpdate 2026-02-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Merger/Acquisition Scenario: If SpaceX and xAI merge:\n\nMarket resolves YES if the merged entity c\n\nThis mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). N/A or canceled there means everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 5, 7:53 PM ET · World Day 840","resolves":1799020740,"resolvesText":"Jan 3, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 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$4.0T by December 31?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["ai"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.074,"ref":0.067},{"name":"No","p":0.926,"ref":0.933}],"chance":0.074,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-anthropics-valuation-hit-by-december-31","ref":0.067,"b":3895,"state":[-10141.373274,-299.451668],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791260007,"closes":1799125140,"closesText":"Jan 4, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 3,029","closesWorldDay":3029,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":669,"slug":"will-oklahoma-enact-a-data-center-moratorium-by-june-30-2027","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-oklahoma-enact-a-data-center-moratorium-by-june-30-2027","q":"Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & 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Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}