{"id":887,"slug":"will-russia-enter-druzkhivka-by-december-31-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-russia-enter-druzkhivka-by-december-31-2026","q":"Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?","cat":"world","catName":"World","emoji":"🌍","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.38,"ref":0.365},{"name":"No","p":0.62,"ref":0.635}],"chance":0.38,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-cities-will-russia-enter-by-december-31","ref":0.365,"b":3225,"state":[-3120.458485,-1541.665458],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791276941,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":"Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?","rules":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Druzkhivka (48.61631417285371° N, 37.528161462381036° E; https://maps.app.goo.gl/cH9ekgbf9qbxGPUk6) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nTerritory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.\n\nAny continuous shading under the following layers will qualify:\n- Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas\n- Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain\n- Assessed Russian Advances\n\nShading under the following layers will not qualify:\n- Claimed Russian Territory\n\nOnce a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.","resolutionSource":"Polymarket's own resolution (UMA's optimistic oracle). If Polymarket voids or cancels it, everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 6, 4:55 AM ET · World Day 849","resolves":1798779540,"resolvesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791276900,"p":[0.38,0.62],"r":[0.38,0.62]},{"at":1791278100,"p":[0.38,0.62],"r":[0.365,0.635]},{"at":1791285984,"p":[0.38,0.62],"r":[0.365,0.635]}],"book":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"mid":38,"bestBid":37,"bestAsk":39,"spread":2,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":39,"shares":136,"people":0,"house":136,"total":53.04},{"price":40,"shares":135,"people":0,"house":135,"total":107.04},{"price":41,"shares":134,"people":0,"house":134,"total":161.98},{"price":42,"shares":133,"people":0,"house":133,"total":217.84},{"price":43,"shares":132,"people":0,"house":132,"total":274.6},{"price":44,"shares":131,"people":0,"house":131,"total":332.24}],"bids":[{"price":37,"shares":138,"people":0,"house":138,"total":51.06},{"price":36,"shares":139,"people":0,"house":139,"total":101.1},{"price":35,"shares":141,"people":0,"house":141,"total":150.45},{"price":34,"shares":142,"people":0,"house":142,"total":198.73},{"price":33,"shares":145,"people":0,"house":145,"total":246.58},{"price":32,"shares":147,"people":0,"house":147,"total":293.62}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"mid":62,"bestBid":61,"bestAsk":63,"spread":2,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":63,"shares":138,"people":0,"house":138,"total":86.94},{"price":64,"shares":139,"people":0,"house":139,"total":175.9},{"price":65,"shares":141,"people":0,"house":141,"total":267.55},{"price":66,"shares":142,"people":0,"house":142,"total":361.27},{"price":67,"shares":145,"people":0,"house":145,"total":458.42},{"price":68,"shares":147,"people":0,"house":147,"total":558.38}],"bids":[{"price":61,"shares":136,"people":0,"house":136,"total":82.96},{"price":60,"shares":135,"people":0,"house":135,"total":163.96},{"price":59,"shares":134,"people":0,"house":134,"total":243.02},{"price":58,"shares":133,"people":0,"house":133,"total":320.16},{"price":57,"shares":132,"people":0,"house":132,"total":395.4},{"price":56,"shares":131,"people":0,"house":131,"total":468.76}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":95,"slug":"us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-october-31-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-october-31-2026","q":"US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?","cat":"world","catName":"World","emoji":"🌍","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0968,"ref":0.0225},{"name":"No","p":0.9032,"ref":0.9775}],"chance":0.0968,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":3030,"trades":71,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-20260621201254412/us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-october-31-2026","ref":0.0225,"b":3794,"state":[-6338.639617,2133.252394],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232045,"closes":1793505540,"closesText":"Oct 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,468","closesWorldDay":1468,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":106,"slug":"us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-december-31-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-december-31-2026","q":"US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?","cat":"world","catName":"World","emoji":"🌍","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.2184,"ref":0.125},{"name":"No","p":0.7816,"ref":0.875}],"chance":0.2184,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":2629,"trades":74,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-20260621201254412/us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-december-31-2026-191","ref":0.125,"b":4794,"state":[-4959.842751,1153.850504],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232045,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":21,"slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-31","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-31","q":"Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?","cat":"world","catName":"World","emoji":"🌍","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.7751,"ref":0.83},{"name":"No","p":0.2249,"ref":0.17}],"chance":0.7751,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":551,"trades":21,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt-20260716224448963","ref":0.83,"b":4181,"state":[-538.93278,-5712.366795],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1793478540,"closesText":"Oct 31, 4:29 PM ET · World Day 1,461","closesWorldDay":1461,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":526,"slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-december-31","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-december-31","q":"Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?","cat":"world","catName":"World","emoji":"🌍","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.605,"ref":0.595},{"name":"No","p":0.395,"ref":0.405}],"chance":0.605,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt-20260716224448963","ref":0.595,"b":3932,"state":[-1975.93546,-3652.314929],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791249205,"closes":1798748940,"closesText":"Dec 31, 3:29 PM ET · World Day 2,925","closesWorldDay":2925,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":575,"slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-15","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-15","q":"Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?","cat":"world","catName":"World","emoji":"🌍","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.915,"ref":0.935},{"name":"No","p":0.085,"ref":0.065}],"chance":0.915,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt-20260716224448963/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-15","ref":0.935,"b":1278,"state":[-113.526291,-3150.402941],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791255207,"closes":1792123140,"closesText":"Oct 15, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,084","closesWorldDay":1084,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":94,"slug":"will-the-uss-george-washington-depart-centcom-by-november-30-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-the-uss-george-washington-depart-centcom-by-november-30-2026","q":"Will the USS George Washington depart CENTCOM by November 30, 2026?","cat":"world","catName":"World","emoji":"🌍","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.67,"ref":0.57},{"name":"No","p":0.33,"ref":0.43}],"chance":0.67,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/uss-george-washington-departs-centcom-byptptpt","ref":0.57,"b":1664,"state":[-666.394671,-1844.814607],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232045,"closes":1796101140,"closesText":"Nov 30, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,189","closesWorldDay":2189,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}