{"id":116,"slug":"will-s-and-p-500-increase-in-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-s-and-p-500-increase-in-2026","q":"Will S&P 500 increase in 2026?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["stocks"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.9494,"ref":0.9494},{"name":"No","p":0.0506,"ref":0.0506}],"chance":0.9494,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-sp-500-increase-in-2026","ref":0.9494,"b":1888,"state":[-98.084564,-5632.483003],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232165,"closes":1798847940,"closesText":"Jan 1, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 2,952","closesWorldDay":2952,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"Will the closing price (C) of the last trading day of 2026 be higher than the opening price (O) on the first trading day of 2026. \n\nIf C > O then YES\n\nIf C == O then NO\n\nIf C < O then NO\n\nN/A if there are less than 2 trading days in 2026.\n\nAuthor betting rules\n\nThe author of this question can place bets on it.\n\nResolving rules\n\nThis question will be resolved shortly after the last trading day of 2026.\n\nOther questions on this topic\n\nWill S&P 500 increase in 2024? (resolved YES)\n\nWill S&P 500 increase in 2025? (resolved YES)\n\nWill S&P 500 increase in 2026? (this question)\n\nWill S&P 500 increase in 2027?\n\nThis mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). N/A or canceled there means everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 5, 4:29 PM ET · World Day 837","resolves":1799107140,"resolvesText":"Jan 4, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 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Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}