{"id":328,"slug":"will-significant-evidence-emerge-that-alibabas-rome-ai-tried-to-break-free","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-significant-evidence-emerge-that-alibabas-rome-ai-tried-to-break-free","q":"Will significant evidence emerge that Alibaba's ROME AI tried to break free?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["ai"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.1009,"ref":0.1009},{"name":"No","p":0.8991,"ref":0.8991}],"chance":0.1009,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/CDBiddulph/will-significant-evidence-emerge-th","ref":0.1009,"b":1184,"state":[-2715.467285,-125.952221],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791238645,"closes":1836614580,"closesText":"Mar 13, 10:43 PM ET · World Day 13,443","closesWorldDay":13443,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"The market @/MaxHarms/did-alibabas-rome-ai-try-to-break-f asks whether an incident described in a paper from Alibaba, in which an AI attempted to mine crypto and subvert human oversight without being prompted to, really occurred as stated. See this excerpt from the resolution criteria:\n\nThis market will resolve YES if by the market close there has been no significant evidence that it wasn't the AI. It can also resolve YES if there has been a significant validation by a trusted third-party.\n\nYES resolution: This market resolves YES if the incident is significantly validated by anybody. Unlike the other market, it counts if the incident is significantly validated by Alibaba researchers themselves. \"Significant validation\" means that someone takes another look at the data from the incident, they publicly release new findings that weren't included in the original paper, and these findings generally support that the incident occurred as stated.\n\nNO resolution: If nothing else happens by March 13, 2028, this market resolves NO by default. If the other market resolves NO before mine resolves YES, mine also resolves NO. \n\nMotivation: I think the default outcome of the above market is that no additional evidence will come out for or against the incident, and it will resolve to YES. But this doesn't say much about whether or not the incident actually occurred. The paper was released 3 months ago; for all we know the authors have already deleted the logs, and it seems likely that they won't bother to look into it further.\n\nI'll try to use similar standards to @MaxHarms for what kind of incident counts as \"trying to break free.\" See this paragraph from the other market:\n\nTo clarify my resolution criteria, if a human was hacking their servers, perhaps by exploiting the AI, then this\n\nThis mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). N/A or canceled there means everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 5, 6:17 PM ET · World Day 839","resolves":1836873780,"resolvesText":"Mar 16, 10:43 PM ET · World Day 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Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}