{"id":324,"slug":"will-spacex-spcx-stock-drop-below-100-by-the-end-of-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-spacex-spcx-stock-drop-below-100-by-the-end-of-2026","q":"Will SpaceX (SPCX) stock drop below $100 by the end of 2026?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":["spacex","space"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.1579,"ref":0.1579},{"name":"No","p":0.8421,"ref":0.8421}],"chance":0.1579,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/sama/will-spacex-spcx-stock-drop-below-1","ref":0.1579,"b":1778,"state":[-3282.143883,-305.500256],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791238405,"closes":1798761540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 2,928","closesWorldDay":2928,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"Resolution criteria\n\nThis market resolves to YES if, at any point on or before December 31, 2026, the trading price of SpaceX Class A Common Stock (Nasdaq: SPCX) drops below $100.00 USD.\n\nThis includes regular trading hours, pre-market, and after-hours trading.\n\nThe primary source of truth for the stock price of SPCX will be Yahoo Finance.\n\nIf a stock split, reverse split, stock dividend, or other recapitalization event occurs, the $100.00 target threshold will be adjusted proportionally (e.g., a 2-for-1 stock split would adjust the target threshold to $50.00).\n\nIf the stock does not drop below $100.00 (or its split-adjusted equivalent) at any point by the close of the final trading session of 2026, this market will resolve to NO.\n\nIf SpaceX is acquired, delisted, or ceases to trade prior to the end of 2026 without having dropped below $100.00, the market will resolve to NO.\n\nBackground\n\nSpaceX priced its historic initial public offering (IPO) at $135 per share on June 11, 2026, raising $75 billion and valuing the company at $1.77 trillion.\n\nUnder the ticker SPCX, the Class A common stock began public trading on the Nasdaq exchange on June 12, 2026.\n\nThis market tracks whether the stock will fall approximately 26% from its IPO offer price of $135 to reach double digits ($99.99 or lower) at any point during its first several months of trading.\n\nThis mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). N/A or canceled there means everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 5, 6:13 PM ET · World Day 839","resolves":1799020740,"resolvesText":"Jan 3, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 3,000","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791238380,"p":[0.1579,0.8421],"r":[0.1579,0.8421]},{"at":1791246258,"p":[0.1579,0.8421],"r":[0.1579,0.8421]}],"book":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"mid":15.79,"bestBid":15,"bestAsk":16,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":16,"shares":28,"people":0,"house":28,"total":4.48},{"price":17,"shares":129,"people":0,"house":129,"total":26.41},{"price":18,"shares":124,"people":0,"house":124,"total":48.73},{"price":19,"shares":118,"people":0,"house":118,"total":71.15},{"price":20,"shares":113,"people":0,"house":113,"total":93.75},{"price":21,"shares":109,"people":0,"house":109,"total":116.64}],"bids":[{"price":15,"shares":107,"people":0,"house":107,"total":16.05},{"price":14,"shares":144,"people":0,"house":144,"total":36.21},{"price":13,"shares":152,"people":0,"house":152,"total":55.97},{"price":12,"shares":163,"people":0,"house":163,"total":75.53},{"price":11,"shares":175,"people":0,"house":175,"total":94.78},{"price":10,"shares":189,"people":0,"house":189,"total":113.68}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"mid":84.21,"bestBid":84,"bestAsk":85,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":85,"shares":107,"people":0,"house":107,"total":90.95},{"price":86,"shares":144,"people":0,"house":144,"total":214.79},{"price":87,"shares":152,"people":0,"house":152,"total":347.03},{"price":88,"shares":163,"people":0,"house":163,"total":490.47},{"price":89,"shares":175,"people":0,"house":175,"total":646.22},{"price":90,"shares":189,"people":0,"house":189,"total":816.32}],"bids":[{"price":84,"shares":28,"people":0,"house":28,"total":23.52},{"price":83,"shares":129,"people":0,"house":129,"total":130.59},{"price":82,"shares":124,"people":0,"house":124,"total":232.27},{"price":81,"shares":118,"people":0,"house":118,"total":327.85},{"price":80,"shares":113,"people":0,"house":113,"total":418.25},{"price":79,"shares":109,"people":0,"house":109,"total":504.36}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":138,"slug":"will-spacexai-officially-rename-itself-to-spacexsi-by-october-15","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-spacexai-officially-rename-itself-to-spacexsi-by-october-15","q":"Will SpaceXAI officially rename itself to SpaceXSI by October 15?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["ai","spacex","elon-musk"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.205,"ref":0.21},{"name":"No","p":0.795,"ref":0.79}],"chance":0.205,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-spacexai-officially-rename-itself-to-spacexsi-byptptpt","ref":0.21,"b":1511,"state":[-2394.550148,-346.643291],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232405,"closes":1792123140,"closesText":"Oct 15, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,084","closesWorldDay":1084,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":24,"slug":"bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-october-31","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-october-31","q":"Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0786,"ref":0.055},{"name":"No","p":0.9214,"ref":0.945}],"chance":0.0786,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":738,"trades":14,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by","ref":0.055,"b":4032,"state":[-9516.501882,407.908343],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1793505540,"closesText":"Oct 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,468","closesWorldDay":1468,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":28,"slug":"fed-decision-in-october","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/fed-decision-in-october","q":"Fed Decision in October?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":["fed"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"No change","p":0.7895,"ref":0.7966},{"name":"25 bps increase","p":0.1984,"ref":0.1954},{"name":"50+ bps increase","p":0.0044,"ref":0.0035},{"name":"25 bps decrease","p":0.0039,"ref":0.0035},{"name":"Other","p":0.0039,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.7895,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":233,"trades":5,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537","ref":0.7966,"b":7670,"state":[-1578.962359,-12174.269934,-41465.482841,-42353.554044,-42353.554044],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1793246340,"closesText":"Oct 28, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,396","closesWorldDay":1396,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":16,"slug":"strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31","q":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.1855,"ref":0.185},{"name":"No","p":0.8145,"ref":0.815}],"chance":0.1855,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":459,"trades":12,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31","ref":0.185,"b":5728,"state":[-9189.424072,-715.760725],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":57,"slug":"will-crude-oil-reach-a-new-all-time-high-by-december-31","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-crude-oil-reach-a-new-all-time-high-by-december-31","q":"Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.1228,"ref":0.095},{"name":"No","p":0.8772,"ref":0.905}],"chance":0.1228,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":135,"trades":6,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/crude-oil-all-time-high-by","ref":0.095,"b":4327,"state":[-8938.231782,-431.922591],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231805,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":160,"slug":"xi-jinping-out-before-2027","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/xi-jinping-out-before-2027","q":"Xi Jinping out before 2027?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0368,"ref":0.0245},{"name":"No","p":0.9632,"ref":0.9755}],"chance":0.0368,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":72,"trades":4,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/xi-jinping-out-before-2027","ref":0.0245,"b":5738,"state":[-18871.713442,-142.331772],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791233005,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}