{"id":295,"slug":"will-starship-reach-space-in-2023-x-will-a-human-land-on-the-moon-by-2028","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-starship-reach-space-in-2023-x-will-a-human-land-on-the-moon-by-2028","q":"Will Starship reach space in 2023? x Will a human land on the moon by 2028?","cat":"science","catName":"Science","emoji":"🔬","tags":["spacex","space"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Starship reaches space in 2023 AND No human lands on the Moo","p":0.9619,"ref":0.9663},{"name":"Starship reaches space in 2023 AND A human lands on the Moon","p":0.0301,"ref":0.0302},{"name":"Starship does not reach space in 2023 AND No human lands on","p":0.004,"ref":0.0025},{"name":"Starship does not reach space in 2023 AND A human lands on t","p":0.004,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.9619,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/level2/will-starship-reach-space-in-2023-x","ref":0.9663,"b":1768,"state":[-68.62803,-6193.12122,-9770.138279,-9770.138279],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791237205,"closes":1830337140,"closesText":"Jan 1, 5:59 AM ET · World Day 11,699","closesWorldDay":11699,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"This is a \"market for markets\".\n\nArtemis III is the only crewed Moon landing scheduled for before 2028, but there have been fears that if Starship is delayed the mission may not fly.\n\nThe answer will be chosen according to the resolution of these two markets:\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/will-starship-reach-space-in-2023)(https://manifold.markets/embed/StanPinsent/will-a-human-land-on-the-moon-by-20)\n\nThis mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). N/A or canceled there means everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 5, 5:53 PM ET · World Day 838","resolves":1830596340,"resolvesText":"Jan 4, 5:59 AM ET · World Day 11,771","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791237180,"p":[0.9619,0.0301,0.004,0.004],"r":[0.9663,0.0302,0.0025,0.001]},{"at":1791249660,"p":[0.9619,0.0301,0.004,0.004],"r":[0.9663,0.0302,0.0025,0.001]},{"at":1791252921,"p":[0.9619,0.0301,0.004,0.004],"r":[0.9663,0.0302,0.0025,0.001]}],"book":[{"outcome":"Starship reaches space in 2023 AND No human lands on the 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t","o":3,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":138,"slug":"will-spacexai-officially-rename-itself-to-spacexsi-by-october-15","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-spacexai-officially-rename-itself-to-spacexsi-by-october-15","q":"Will SpaceXAI officially rename itself to SpaceXSI by October 15?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["ai","spacex","elon-musk"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.205,"ref":0.215},{"name":"No","p":0.795,"ref":0.785}],"chance":0.205,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-spacexai-officially-rename-itself-to-spacexsi-byptptpt","ref":0.215,"b":1511,"state":[-2394.550148,-346.643291],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232405,"closes":1792123140,"closesText":"Oct 15, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 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2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":324,"slug":"will-spacex-spcx-stock-drop-below-100-by-the-end-of-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-spacex-spcx-stock-drop-below-100-by-the-end-of-2026","q":"Will SpaceX (SPCX) stock drop below $100 by the end of 2026?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":["spacex","space"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.1579,"ref":0.1579},{"name":"No","p":0.8421,"ref":0.8421}],"chance":0.1579,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/sama/will-spacex-spcx-stock-drop-below-1","ref":0.1579,"b":1778,"state":[-3282.143883,-305.500256],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791238405,"closes":1798761540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 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2,928","closesWorldDay":2928,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}