{"id":212,"slug":"will-starships-upper-stage-be-caught-successfully-on-spacexs-first-attempt","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-starships-upper-stage-be-caught-successfully-on-spacexs-first-attempt","q":"Will Starship’s upper stage be caught successfully on SpaceX’s first attempt?","cat":"science","catName":"Science","emoji":"🔬","tags":["spacex","space"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.63,"ref":0.63},{"name":"No","p":0.37,"ref":0.37}],"chance":0.63,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/RyanTyznar/will-starships-upper-stage-be-caugh","ref":0.63,"b":1072,"state":[-495.302013,-1065.838437],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791234325,"closes":1798761540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 2,928","closesWorldDay":2928,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"Resolution criteria\n\nThe market resolves YES if SpaceX successfully catches Starship's upper stage using the Mechazilla tower's \"chopstick\" arms on their first attempt.\n\nAn attempted catch is defined as any Starship, once having reached orbit, passing a mission milestone where it commits irreversibly to a deorbit trajectory with the possibility and intent of a catch. I.E. a deorbit burn targeting the boca chica launch site. Any diversion here after would result in a No resolution. (Added 08/26/26)\n\nThe catch must be completed without the upper stage being lost, damaged beyond recovery, or diverted to a splashdown. Resolution will be determined by official SpaceX statements and publicly available footage from the launch. The first attempt is expected as early as spring 2026, though the exact timing depends on flight test outcomes.\n\nBackground\n\nBoth Starship's first and second stages are planned to be reusable and caught by tower arms, with booster catch capability first demonstrated during Starship's fifth flight test. SpaceX has already successfully captured its Super Heavy booster stage three times, but the upper stage has yet to be captured for the first time. The first upper stage catch attempt may take place no earlier than between Flight 13 and depends on how well the company's upcoming Starship V3 flights go. See my market on that topic here: \n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/RyanTyznar/by-which-flight-of-starship-will-it)This description was generated by AI, edited by myself for accuracy and personalization.\n\nThis mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). N/A or canceled there means everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 5, 5:05 PM ET · World Day 838","resolves":1799020740,"resolvesText":"Jan 3, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 3,000","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791234300,"p":[0.63,0.37],"r":[0.63,0.37]},{"at":1791246060,"p":[0.63,0.37],"r":[0.63,0.37]},{"at":1791255794,"p":[0.63,0.37],"r":[0.63,0.37]}],"book":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"mid":63,"bestBid":62,"bestAsk":64,"spread":2,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":64,"shares":46,"people":0,"house":46,"total":29.44},{"price":65,"shares":47,"people":0,"house":47,"total":59.99},{"price":66,"shares":48,"people":0,"house":48,"total":91.67},{"price":67,"shares":48,"people":0,"house":48,"total":123.83},{"price":68,"shares":49,"people":0,"house":49,"total":157.15},{"price":69,"shares":49,"people":0,"house":49,"total":190.96}],"bids":[{"price":62,"shares":46,"people":0,"house":46,"total":28.52},{"price":61,"shares":45,"people":0,"house":45,"total":55.97},{"price":60,"shares":45,"people":0,"house":45,"total":82.97},{"price":59,"shares":44,"people":0,"house":44,"total":108.93},{"price":58,"shares":45,"people":0,"house":45,"total":135.03},{"price":57,"shares":43,"people":0,"house":43,"total":159.54}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"mid":37,"bestBid":36,"bestAsk":38,"spread":2,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":38,"shares":46,"people":0,"house":46,"total":17.48},{"price":39,"shares":45,"people":0,"house":45,"total":35.03},{"price":40,"shares":45,"people":0,"house":45,"total":53.03},{"price":41,"shares":44,"people":0,"house":44,"total":71.07},{"price":42,"shares":45,"people":0,"house":45,"total":89.97},{"price":43,"shares":43,"people":0,"house":43,"total":108.46}],"bids":[{"price":36,"shares":46,"people":0,"house":46,"total":16.56},{"price":35,"shares":47,"people":0,"house":47,"total":33.01},{"price":34,"shares":48,"people":0,"house":48,"total":49.33},{"price":33,"shares":48,"people":0,"house":48,"total":65.17},{"price":32,"shares":49,"people":0,"house":49,"total":80.85},{"price":31,"shares":49,"people":0,"house":49,"total":96.04}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":138,"slug":"will-spacexai-officially-rename-itself-to-spacexsi-by-october-15","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-spacexai-officially-rename-itself-to-spacexsi-by-october-15","q":"Will SpaceXAI officially rename itself to SpaceXSI by October 15?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["ai","spacex","elon-musk"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.205,"ref":0.215},{"name":"No","p":0.795,"ref":0.785}],"chance":0.205,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-spacexai-officially-rename-itself-to-spacexsi-byptptpt","ref":0.215,"b":1511,"state":[-2394.550148,-346.643291],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232405,"closes":1792123140,"closesText":"Oct 15, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,084","closesWorldDay":1084,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":107,"slug":"new-pandemic-in-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/new-pandemic-in-2026","q":"New pandemic in 2026?","cat":"science","catName":"Science","emoji":"🔬","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.055,"ref":0.075},{"name":"No","p":0.945,"ref":0.925}],"chance":0.055,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/new-pandemic-in-2026","ref":0.075,"b":4093,"state":[-11871.42763,-231.542449],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232045,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":324,"slug":"will-spacex-spcx-stock-drop-below-100-by-the-end-of-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-spacex-spcx-stock-drop-below-100-by-the-end-of-2026","q":"Will SpaceX (SPCX) stock drop below $100 by the end of 2026?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":["spacex","space"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.1579,"ref":0.1579},{"name":"No","p":0.8421,"ref":0.8421}],"chance":0.1579,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/sama/will-spacex-spcx-stock-drop-below-1","ref":0.1579,"b":1778,"state":[-3282.143883,-305.500256],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791238405,"closes":1798761540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 2,928","closesWorldDay":2928,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":210,"slug":"acx-2026-will-spacex-successfully-refuel-a-starship-in-orbit-during-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/acx-2026-will-spacex-successfully-refuel-a-starship-in-orbit-during-2026","q":"[ACX 2026] Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?","cat":"science","catName":"Science","emoji":"🔬","tags":["spacex","space"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0476,"ref":0.0476},{"name":"No","p":0.9524,"ref":0.9524}],"chance":0.0476,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/DaftPunkRock/acx-2026-will-spacex-successfully-r","ref":0.0476,"b":1711,"state":[-5208.60746,-83.508497],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791234325,"closes":1798761540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 2,928","closesWorldDay":2928,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":186,"slug":"will-spacex-stock-crash-and-close-below-100-anyday-in-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-spacex-stock-crash-and-close-below-100-anyday-in-2026","q":"Will SpaceX stock crash and close below $100 anyday in 2026?","cat":"crypto","catName":"Crypto","emoji":"🪙","tags":["spacex","space"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.16,"ref":0.16},{"name":"No","p":0.84,"ref":0.84}],"chance":0.16,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/BillClintonBubba/will-spacex-stock-crash-and-close-b","ref":0.16,"b":1482,"state":[-2715.885729,-258.39172],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791233605,"closes":1798761540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 2,928","closesWorldDay":2928,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":211,"slug":"will-two-starships-dock-together-in-orbit-before-2027","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-two-starships-dock-together-in-orbit-before-2027","q":"Will two Starships dock together in orbit before 2027?","cat":"science","catName":"Science","emoji":"🔬","tags":["spacex","space"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0462,"ref":0.0462},{"name":"No","p":0.9538,"ref":0.9538}],"chance":0.0462,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/Mqrius/will-two-starships-dock-in-orbit-be-5c7f9f1f2a7f","ref":0.0462,"b":1486,"state":[-4570.027244,-70.245585],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791234325,"closes":1798757940,"closesText":"Dec 31, 5:59 PM ET · World Day 2,927","closesWorldDay":2927,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}