{"id":118,"slug":"will-tesla-increase-deliveries-in-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-tesla-increase-deliveries-in-2026","q":"Will Tesla increase deliveries in 2026?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["tesla"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.8551,"ref":0.8715},{"name":"No","p":0.1449,"ref":0.1285}],"chance":0.8551,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/Simon74fe/will-tesla-deliveries-increase-in-2","ref":0.8715,"b":1124,"state":[-175.957956,-2171.18152],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232165,"closes":1798761540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 2,928","closesWorldDay":2928,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"This mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). N/A or canceled there means everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 5, 4:29 PM ET · World Day 837","resolves":1799020740,"resolvesText":"Jan 3, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 3,000","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791232140,"p":[0.8551,0.1449],"r":[0.8551,0.1449]},{"at":1791235860,"p":[0.8551,0.1449],"r":[0.8693,0.1307]},{"at":1791249660,"p":[0.8551,0.1449],"r":[0.8715,0.1285]},{"at":1791258343,"p":[0.8551,0.1449],"r":[0.8715,0.1285]}],"book":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"mid":85.51,"bestBid":85,"bestAsk":86,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":86,"shares":45,"people":0,"house":45,"total":38.7},{"price":87,"shares":96,"people":0,"house":96,"total":122.22},{"price":88,"shares":103,"people":0,"house":103,"total":212.86},{"price":89,"shares":111,"people":0,"house":111,"total":311.65},{"price":90,"shares":119,"people":0,"house":119,"total":418.75},{"price":91,"shares":131,"people":0,"house":131,"total":537.96}],"bids":[{"price":85,"shares":46,"people":0,"house":46,"total":39.1},{"price":84,"shares":85,"people":0,"house":85,"total":110.5},{"price":83,"shares":82,"people":0,"house":82,"total":178.56},{"price":82,"shares":78,"people":0,"house":78,"total":242.52},{"price":81,"shares":74,"people":0,"house":74,"total":302.46},{"price":80,"shares":72,"people":0,"house":72,"total":360.06}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"mid":14.49,"bestBid":14,"bestAsk":15,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":15,"shares":46,"people":0,"house":46,"total":6.9},{"price":16,"shares":85,"people":0,"house":85,"total":20.5},{"price":17,"shares":82,"people":0,"house":82,"total":34.44},{"price":18,"shares":78,"people":0,"house":78,"total":48.48},{"price":19,"shares":74,"people":0,"house":74,"total":62.54},{"price":20,"shares":72,"people":0,"house":72,"total":76.94}],"bids":[{"price":14,"shares":45,"people":0,"house":45,"total":6.3},{"price":13,"shares":96,"people":0,"house":96,"total":18.78},{"price":12,"shares":103,"people":0,"house":103,"total":31.14},{"price":11,"shares":111,"people":0,"house":111,"total":43.35},{"price":10,"shares":119,"people":0,"house":119,"total":55.25},{"price":9,"shares":131,"people":0,"house":131,"total":67.04}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":72,"slug":"gemini-4-0-released-by-october-31-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/gemini-4-0-released-by-october-31-2026","q":"Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["ai"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.8137,"ref":0.855},{"name":"No","p":0.1863,"ref":0.145}],"chance":0.8137,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":696,"trades":18,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/gemini-4pt0-released-by-june-30-2026","ref":0.855,"b":2754,"state":[128.848342,-3930.969143],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231805,"closes":1793505540,"closesText":"Oct 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,468","closesWorldDay":1468,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":49,"slug":"will-indiana-enact-a-data-center-moratorium-by-december-31-2028","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-indiana-enact-a-data-center-moratorium-by-december-31-2028","q":"Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["ai"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.2042,"ref":0.145},{"name":"No","p":0.7958,"ref":0.855}],"chance":0.2042,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":827,"trades":14,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/indiana-enacts-data-center-moratorium-by-20260929","ref":0.145,"b":3495,"state":[-4723.92027,29.494934],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231805,"closes":1861937940,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 20,477","closesWorldDay":20477,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":257,"slug":"which-company-has-the-best-ai-model-end-of-october","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/which-company-has-the-best-ai-model-end-of-october","q":"Which company has the best AI model end of October?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["ai"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Google","p":0.6529,"ref":0.6981},{"name":"Anthropic","p":0.3191,"ref":0.2831},{"name":"OpenAI","p":0.0128,"ref":0.012},{"name":"Meta","p":0.0059,"ref":0.0058},{"name":"Other","p":0.0093,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.6529,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-the-best-ai-model-end-of-october","ref":0.6981,"b":5530,"state":[-2357.434548,-6316.703625,-24117.086936,-28392.827018,-25851.613237],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791236005,"closes":1793462400,"closesText":"Oct 31, 12 PM ET · World Day 1,456","closesWorldDay":1456,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":121,"slug":"largest-company-end-of-december-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/largest-company-end-of-december-2026","q":"Largest Company end of December 2026?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":[],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"NVIDIA","p":0.8419,"ref":0.8454},{"name":"Apple","p":0.0995,"ref":0.0999},{"name":"Alphabet","p":0.0446,"ref":0.0447},{"name":"Microsoft","p":0.0059,"ref":0.006},{"name":"SpaceX","p":0.004,"ref":0.003},{"name":"Other","p":0.004,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.8419,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/largest-company-end-of-december-2026","ref":0.8454,"b":6666.25,"state":[-1146.87129,-15379.839154,-20736.139282,-34167.986543,-36814.494657,-36814.494657],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232285,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":294,"slug":"largest-company-end-of-october-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/largest-company-end-of-october-2026","q":"Largest Company end of October 2026?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":[],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"NVIDIA","p":0.9528,"ref":0.9556},{"name":"Apple","p":0.0392,"ref":0.0399},{"name":"Alphabet","p":0.004,"ref":0.0035},{"name":"Other","p":0.004,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.9528,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/largest-company-end-of-october-2026","ref":0.9556,"b":2908,"state":[-140.732174,-9416.061066,-16056.558585,-16056.558585],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791237205,"closes":1793505540,"closesText":"Oct 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,468","closesWorldDay":1468,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":58,"slug":"will-ohio-enact-a-data-center-moratorium-by-december-31-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-ohio-enact-a-data-center-moratorium-by-december-31-2026","q":"Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["ai"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.055,"ref":0.045},{"name":"No","p":0.945,"ref":0.955}],"chance":0.055,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/ohio-enacts-data-center-moratorium-by-20260928","ref":0.045,"b":2805,"state":[-8135.683973,-158.679836],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231805,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}