{"id":1061,"slug":"will-the-2026-midterm-elections-happen-as-scheduled","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-the-2026-midterm-elections-happen-as-scheduled","q":"Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["trump"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.979,"ref":0.9795},{"name":"No","p":0.021,"ref":0.0205}],"chance":0.979,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-2026-midterm-elections-happen-as-scheduled","ref":0.9795,"b":3598,"state":[-76.362644,-13899.911763],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791293381,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the 2026 US Midterm Elections happen on November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","resolutionSource":"Polymarket's own resolution (UMA's optimistic oracle). If Polymarket voids or cancels it, everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 6, 9:29 AM ET · World Day 854","resolves":1798779540,"resolvesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791293340,"p":[0.979,0.021],"r":[0.979,0.021]},{"at":1791300462,"p":[0.979,0.021],"r":[0.9795,0.0205]}],"book":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"mid":97.9,"bestBid":97,"bestAsk":98,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":98,"shares":179,"people":0,"house":179,"total":175.42},{"price":99,"shares":2531,"people":0,"house":2531,"total":2681.11}],"bids":[{"price":97,"shares":1317,"people":0,"house":1317,"total":1277.49},{"price":96,"shares":1072,"people":0,"house":1072,"total":2306.61},{"price":95,"shares":840,"people":0,"house":840,"total":3104.61},{"price":94,"shares":695,"people":0,"house":695,"total":3757.91},{"price":93,"shares":593,"people":0,"house":593,"total":4309.4},{"price":92,"shares":519,"people":0,"house":519,"total":4786.88}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"mid":2.1,"bestBid":2,"bestAsk":3,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":3,"shares":1317,"people":0,"house":1317,"total":39.51},{"price":4,"shares":1072,"people":0,"house":1072,"total":82.39},{"price":5,"shares":840,"people":0,"house":840,"total":124.39},{"price":6,"shares":695,"people":0,"house":695,"total":166.09},{"price":7,"shares":593,"people":0,"house":593,"total":207.6},{"price":8,"shares":519,"people":0,"house":519,"total":249.12}],"bids":[{"price":2,"shares":179,"people":0,"house":179,"total":3.58},{"price":1,"shares":2531,"people":0,"house":2531,"total":28.89}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":13,"slug":"us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-october-15-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-october-15-2026","q":"US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["trump"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.2094,"ref":0.125},{"name":"No","p":0.7906,"ref":0.875}],"chance":0.2094,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":3103,"trades":67,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-byptptpt-20260713152715080/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-october-15-2026","ref":0.125,"b":4035,"state":[-3206.546621,2155.200831],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1792123140,"closesText":"Oct 15, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,084","closesWorldDay":1084,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":26,"slug":"us-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-15","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/us-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-15","q":"US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["trump"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.7943,"ref":0.875},{"name":"No","p":0.2057,"ref":0.125}],"chance":0.7943,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":3621,"trades":68,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt/us-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-15","ref":0.875,"b":2983,"state":[2877.675856,-1152.974119],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1792123140,"closesText":"Oct 15, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,084","closesWorldDay":1084,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":11,"slug":"clarity-act-h-r-3633-signed-into-law-in-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/clarity-act-h-r-3633-signed-into-law-in-2026","q":"Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?","cat":"crypto","catName":"Crypto","emoji":"🪙","tags":["trump"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.119,"ref":0.0485},{"name":"No","p":0.881,"ref":0.9515}],"chance":0.119,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":1856,"trades":81,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026","ref":0.0485,"b":6064,"state":[-11702.825141,438.524649],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1798779600,"closesText":"Jan 1, 12 AM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":22,"slug":"us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-october-31-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-october-31-2026","q":"US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["trump"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.2214,"ref":0.225},{"name":"No","p":0.7786,"ref":0.775}],"chance":0.2214,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":936,"trades":26,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-byptptpt-20260713152715080/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-october-31-2026-20260727171711632-895-372-622-413-171-454-592-696","ref":0.225,"b":4819,"state":[-6328.368032,-269.542853],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1793505540,"closesText":"Oct 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,468","closesWorldDay":1468,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":98,"slug":"will-trump-acquire-greenland-before-2027","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-trump-acquire-greenland-before-2027","q":"Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["trump"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0765,"ref":0.026},{"name":"No","p":0.9235,"ref":0.974}],"chance":0.0765,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":1063,"trades":56,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-acquire-greenland-before-2027","ref":0.026,"b":6328,"state":[-15562.91816,199.542951],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232045,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":19,"slug":"will-the-iranian-regime-fall-before-2027","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-before-2027","q":"Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["trump"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.1129,"ref":0.055},{"name":"No","p":0.8871,"ref":0.945}],"chance":0.1129,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":531,"trades":31,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026","ref":0.055,"b":6143,"state":[-13012.292922,-347.511669],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}