{"id":460,"slug":"will-the-farm-bill-hr-7567-pass-and-destroy-federally-preempt-state-animal","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-the-farm-bill-hr-7567-pass-and-destroy-federally-preempt-state-animal","q":"Will the farm bill (HR 7567) pass and destroy / federally preempt state animal welfare laws?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.05,"ref":0.0519},{"name":"No","p":0.95,"ref":0.9481}],"chance":0.05,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/Conflux/will-the-farm-bill-with-save-our-ba","ref":0.0519,"b":1816,"state":[-5438.88046,-93.220722],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791243205,"closes":1799888340,"closesText":"Jan 13, 7:59 PM ET · World Day 3,241","closesWorldDay":3241,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"The EATS act, now called the save our bacon act, would make it illegal for states to pass animal welfare laws that apply to products produced out of state. This would gut most state level animal protection. It would be the worst law for animal welfare ever passed, and would consign hundreds of millions of animals to a life in a cage. Terrifyingly, it has been added to the recent farm bill (though fortunately, even if it passes, egg laying hens will be spared). It will be voted on in the next few days, so this is EXTREMELY TIME SENSITIVE!\n\n(from Bentham’s Bulldog, I also heard about this from my local animal welfare club)\n\nResolves YES if the current House farm bill becomes law with the provision to overturn lots of important state-level animal welfare laws.\n\nContext: At the time of market creation, the bill had not passed the House, but now that it has, I believe the only hope for animal supporters here is for the bill to fail in the Senate, or for the Senate version not to have the provision. \n\nIf you want to make a small difference (but maybe large in expected reduction of animal suffering), consider contacting your senator! I called and emailed mine this morning and it took just a few minutes. \n\nGeneral policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.\n\nUpdate 2026-04-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market is specifically about this farm bill. If the farm bill fails for any reason (e.g. SNAP disagreements), the market resolves NO, even if a future farm bill contains the same provision.\n\nUpdate 2026-04-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market resolves YES only if H.R.\n\nThis mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). N/A or canceled there means everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 5, 7:33 PM ET · World Day 840","resolves":1800147540,"resolvesText":"Jan 16, 7:59 PM ET · World Day 3,313","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791243180,"p":[0.05,0.95],"r":[0.05,0.95]},{"at":1791256860,"p":[0.05,0.95],"r":[0.0519,0.9481]},{"at":1791258421,"p":[0.05,0.95],"r":[0.0519,0.9481]}],"book":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"mid":5,"bestBid":5,"bestAsk":6,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":6,"shares":349,"people":0,"house":349,"total":20.94},{"price":7,"shares":299,"people":0,"house":299,"total":41.87},{"price":8,"shares":262,"people":0,"house":262,"total":62.83},{"price":9,"shares":234,"people":0,"house":234,"total":83.89},{"price":10,"shares":211,"people":0,"house":211,"total":104.99},{"price":11,"shares":194,"people":0,"house":194,"total":126.33}],"bids":[{"price":5,"shares":1,"people":0,"house":1,"total":0.05},{"price":4,"shares":425,"people":0,"house":425,"total":17.05},{"price":3,"shares":541,"people":0,"house":541,"total":33.28},{"price":2,"shares":755,"people":0,"house":755,"total":48.38},{"price":1,"shares":1277,"people":0,"house":1277,"total":61.15}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"mid":95,"bestBid":94,"bestAsk":95,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":95,"shares":1,"people":0,"house":1,"total":0.95},{"price":96,"shares":425,"people":0,"house":425,"total":408.95},{"price":97,"shares":541,"people":0,"house":541,"total":933.72},{"price":98,"shares":755,"people":0,"house":755,"total":1673.62},{"price":99,"shares":1277,"people":0,"house":1277,"total":2937.85}],"bids":[{"price":94,"shares":349,"people":0,"house":349,"total":328.06},{"price":93,"shares":299,"people":0,"house":299,"total":606.13},{"price":92,"shares":262,"people":0,"house":262,"total":847.17},{"price":91,"shares":234,"people":0,"house":234,"total":1060.11},{"price":90,"shares":211,"people":0,"house":211,"total":1250.01},{"price":89,"shares":194,"people":0,"house":194,"total":1422.67}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":114,"slug":"which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026","q":"Which party will win the House in 2026?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections","world-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Democratic Party","p":0.8657,"ref":0.925},{"name":"Republican Party","p":0.1343,"ref":0.075}],"chance":0.8657,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":1530,"trades":45,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026","ref":0.925,"b":5709,"state":[706.91756,-9931.835248],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232165,"closes":1793768340,"closesText":"Nov 3, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,541","closesWorldDay":1541,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":144,"slug":"next-french-presidential-election-who-wins","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/next-french-presidential-election-who-wins","q":"Next French Presidential Election: who 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Zemmour","p":0.0085,"ref":0.0097},{"name":"Other","p":0.0328,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.4667,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":761,"trades":16,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election","ref":0.4355,"b":9051.25,"state":[-6137.149748,-15474.470131,-19022.941078,-19205.800833,-26344.454633,-34955.501664,-38520.82783,-39864.214401,-41442.330497,-42348.210901,-30165.043194],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232405,"closes":1808107140,"closesText":"Apr 18, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 5,524","closesWorldDay":5524,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":17,"slug":"putin-out-as-president-of-russia-by-december-31-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/putin-out-as-president-of-russia-by-december-31-2026","q":"Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["world-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0573,"ref":0.033},{"name":"No","p":0.9427,"ref":0.967}],"chance":0.0573,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":1535,"trades":38,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/putin-out-before-2027","ref":0.033,"b":6055,"state":[-15896.346856,1057.378115],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":29,"slug":"balance-of-power-2026-midterms-who-wins","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/balance-of-power-2026-midterms-who-wins","q":"Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: who wins?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections","world-elections"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Democrats Sweep","p":0.6719,"ref":0.6501},{"name":"R Senate, D House","p":0.2448,"ref":0.263},{"name":"Republicans Sweep","p":0.0692,"ref":0.0744},{"name":"D Senate, R House","p":0.0104,"ref":0.0109},{"name":"Other","p":0.0037,"ref":0.0015}],"chance":0.6719,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":647,"trades":9,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/balance-of-power-2026-midterms","ref":0.6501,"b":7367.5,"state":[-2281.59857,-9719.489176,-19034.054992,-32976.156885,-40679.669526],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1793768340,"closesText":"Nov 3, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,541","closesWorldDay":1541,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":77,"slug":"prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election","q":"Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["world-elections"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Gadi Eizenkot","p":0.5023,"ref":0.4888},{"name":"Benjamin Netanyahu","p":0.3545,"ref":0.3704},{"name":"Naftali Bennett","p":0.1029,"ref":0.1096},{"name":"Avigdor Lieberman","p":0.0173,"ref":0.0193},{"name":"Ofer Winter","p":0.0053,"ref":0.0058},{"name":"Itamar Ben Gvir","p":0.0048,"ref":0.0052},{"name":"Other","p":0.0129,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.5023,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":542,"trades":14,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election","ref":0.4888,"b":8067.5,"state":[-5012.562251,-7823.754031,-17801.239172,-32205.99014,-41771.009063,-42539.923939,-34526.86526],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231805,"closes":1793159940,"closesText":"Oct 27, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,372","closesWorldDay":1372,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":128,"slug":"friedrich-merz-out-as-chancellor-of-germany-before-december-31-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/friedrich-merz-out-as-chancellor-of-germany-before-december-31-2026","q":"Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0968,"ref":0.07},{"name":"No","p":0.9032,"ref":0.93}],"chance":0.0968,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":1821,"trades":20,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/friedrich-merz-out-as-chancellor-of-germany-before-2027","ref":0.07,"b":4528,"state":[-8753.129447,1360.399903],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232405,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}