{"id":189,"slug":"will-the-kendrick-lamar-south-park-movie-get-a-u-s-theatrical-release-date","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-the-kendrick-lamar-south-park-movie-get-a-u-s-theatrical-release-date","q":"Will the Kendrick Lamar/South Park movie get a U.S. theatrical release date announced in 2026?","cat":"culture","catName":"Culture","emoji":"🎬","tags":["movies"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.1457,"ref":0.1457},{"name":"No","p":0.8543,"ref":0.8543}],"chance":0.1457,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/JeremyPzN5O/will-the-kendrickparkerstonefree-pa","ref":0.1457,"b":1733,"state":[-3338.006925,-272.918768],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791233845,"closes":1798761540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 2,928","closesWorldDay":2928,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"Resolution criteria\n\nThis market resolves to YES if, on or before December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM PT, Paramount Pictures, Park County, pgLang, or a major entertainment trade publication citing Paramount, Park County, pgLang, or studio release-calendar information reports a specific U.S. theatrical release date for the upcoming live-action comedy film produced by Kendrick Lamar, Dave Free, Trey Parker, and Matt Stone, sometimes referred to under the working title Whitney Springs.\n\nValid Release Date: The announced theatrical release date itself does not need to occur in 2026. It can be scheduled for 2027 or later, as long as the specific date, day, month, and year, is publicly set and announced by the deadline.\n\nA vague release window such as “2027,” “spring 2027,” “coming soon,” “next year,” or “TBA” does not count. The announcement must include a specific calendar date.\n\nSources: Resolution will be determined by an official announcement, website post, press release, or verified social-media post from Paramount Pictures, Park County, or pgLang; or by reporting from major entertainment trade publications or film-industry release-calendar sources, including Deadline, Variety, The Hollywood Reporter, Box Office Mojo, or The Numbers.\n\nIf the film is retitled, this market still applies if credible sources identify it as the same Paramount / pgLang / Park County project involving Kendrick Lamar, Dave Free, Trey Parker, and Matt Stone.\n\nIf a specific qualifying U.S. theatrical release date is announced before the deadline and later changed, delayed, or removed, this market still resolves YES.\n\nNO Resolution: This market resolves to NO if the movie is canceled, announced for a direct-to-streaming release with no U.S. theatrical run, or if the deadline passes without a specific U.\n\nThis mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). N/A or canceled there means everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 5, 4:57 PM ET · World Day 837","resolves":1799020740,"resolvesText":"Jan 3, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 3,000","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791233820,"p":[0.1457,0.8543],"r":[0.1457,0.8543]},{"at":1791246060,"p":[0.1457,0.8543],"r":[0.1457,0.8543]},{"at":1791256860,"p":[0.1457,0.8543],"r":[0.1457,0.8543]},{"at":1791261353,"p":[0.1457,0.8543],"r":[0.1457,0.8543]}],"book":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"mid":14.57,"bestBid":14,"bestAsk":15,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":15,"shares":59,"people":0,"house":59,"total":8.85},{"price":16,"shares":132,"people":0,"house":132,"total":29.97},{"price":17,"shares":126,"people":0,"house":126,"total":51.39},{"price":18,"shares":120,"people":0,"house":120,"total":72.99},{"price":19,"shares":115,"people":0,"house":115,"total":94.84},{"price":20,"shares":111,"people":0,"house":111,"total":117.04}],"bids":[{"price":14,"shares":81,"people":0,"house":81,"total":11.34},{"price":13,"shares":148,"people":0,"house":148,"total":30.58},{"price":12,"shares":159,"people":0,"house":159,"total":49.66},{"price":11,"shares":170,"people":0,"house":170,"total":68.36},{"price":10,"shares":185,"people":0,"house":185,"total":86.86},{"price":9,"shares":201,"people":0,"house":201,"total":104.95}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"mid":85.43,"bestBid":85,"bestAsk":86,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":86,"shares":81,"people":0,"house":81,"total":69.66},{"price":87,"shares":148,"people":0,"house":148,"total":198.42},{"price":88,"shares":159,"people":0,"house":159,"total":338.34},{"price":89,"shares":170,"people":0,"house":170,"total":489.64},{"price":90,"shares":185,"people":0,"house":185,"total":656.14},{"price":91,"shares":201,"people":0,"house":201,"total":839.05}],"bids":[{"price":85,"shares":59,"people":0,"house":59,"total":50.15},{"price":84,"shares":132,"people":0,"house":132,"total":161.03},{"price":83,"shares":126,"people":0,"house":126,"total":265.61},{"price":82,"shares":120,"people":0,"house":120,"total":364.01},{"price":81,"shares":115,"people":0,"house":115,"total":457.16},{"price":80,"shares":111,"people":0,"house":111,"total":545.96}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":14,"slug":"will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-before-2027","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-before-2027","q":"Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?","cat":"culture","catName":"Culture","emoji":"🎬","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0671,"ref":0.0315},{"name":"No","p":0.9329,"ref":0.9685}],"chance":0.0671,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":316,"trades":10,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-before-2027","ref":0.0315,"b":6411,"state":[-17005.748937,-128.19557],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":232,"slug":"of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-higher-brackets-who-wins","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-higher-brackets-who-wins","q":"# of views of next MrBeast video on week 1? (Higher Brackets): who wins?","cat":"culture","catName":"Culture","emoji":"🎬","tags":[],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"150M+","p":0.9619,"ref":0.9855},{"name":"140-150M","p":0.0197,"ref":0.008},{"name":"130-140M","p":0.0064,"ref":0.003},{"name":"120-130M","p":0.004,"ref":0.0015},{"name":"110-120M","p":0.004,"ref":0.001},{"name":"Other","p":0.004,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.9619,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-higher-brackets-20261004","ref":0.9855,"b":2858.75,"state":[-110.934058,-11226.447239,-14439.482402,-15794.739844,-15794.739844,-15794.739844],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791234805,"closes":1791676740,"closesText":"Oct 10, 7:59 PM ET · World Day 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Netanyahu","p":0.0102,"ref":0.0102},{"name":"Other","p":0.2125,"ref":0.2111}],"chance":0.2831,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/ryanmccomb/who-will-be-time-magazines-2025-per","ref":0.2879,"b":2174,"state":[-2743.203563,-3741.103559,-5289.031368,-5707.214111,-5889.7569,-7132.648239,-8526.949988,-8676.300739,-9516.912662,-9967.234987,-3367.022073],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791236725,"closes":1798761540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 2,928","closesWorldDay":2928,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":277,"slug":"which-fully-recognized-united-nations-member-country-will-be-the-first-one-to","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/which-fully-recognized-united-nations-member-country-will-be-the-first-one-to","q":"Which fully recognized United Nations member country will be the first one to stop existing?","cat":"culture","catName":"Culture","emoji":"🎬","tags":[],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Haiti","p":0.231,"ref":0.231},{"name":"Kiribati","p":0.0634,"ref":0.0634},{"name":"North Korea","p":0.06,"ref":0.06},{"name":"Eritrea","p":0.0536,"ref":0.0536},{"name":"Tuvalu","p":0.0464,"ref":0.0464},{"name":"Libya","p":0.0424,"ref":0.0424},{"name":"Syria","p":0.0358,"ref":0.0358},{"name":"Israel","p":0.0354,"ref":0.0354},{"name":"Russia","p":0.0302,"ref":0.0302},{"name":"South Sudan","p":0.0257,"ref":0.0257},{"name":"Other","p":0.3762,"ref":0.3762}],"chance":0.231,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/strutheo/which-fully-recognized-un-member-co","ref":0.231,"b":1210,"state":[-1773.063068,-3337.80376,-3404.226967,-3540.9186,-3715.136937,-3824.030548,-4029.381275,-4043.964792,-4234.163942,-4431.113774,-1183.068441],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791236725,"closes":1861937940,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 20,477","closesWorldDay":20477,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}