{"id":1106,"slug":"will-the-s-and-p500-be-greater-than-8000-in-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-the-s-and-p500-be-greater-than-8000-in-2026","q":"Will the S&P500 be greater than $8000 in 2026?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":["stocks"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.7249,"ref":0.7249},{"name":"No","p":0.2751,"ref":0.2751}],"chance":0.7249,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/KrishPatel/will-the-sp500-be-greater-than-8000","ref":0.7249,"b":1176,"state":[-378.269411,-1517.967882],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791296502,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"Resolution criteria\n\nThis market resolves YES if the S&P 500 closes at or above 8,000 at any point during 2026. This market resolves NO if the S&P 500 never reaches 8,000 during 2026.\n\nResolution will be verified using the official S&P 500 closing price from FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) or Yahoo Finance.\n\nBackground\n\nThe S&P 500 closed at 6,858.47 on January 2, 2026, requiring approximately a 16.6% gain to reach 8,000. Wall Street strategists project an average 10.2% gain for 2026, though Oppenheimer is most bullish, seeing the index rising 17.8% to 8,100, while Bank of America expects the benchmark to hit 7,100 by year-end 2026. Deutsche Bank set a year-end 2026 price target of 8,000, and JPMorgan is calling for the S&P 500 to reach 7,500 with upside to 8,000 if the Fed continues to cut rates.\n\nConsiderations\n\nThe S&P 500 is currently trading at a very high CAPE ratio, with only the dot-com bubble period trading at a higher valuation. Federal Reserve research suggests President Trump's tariffs will slow economic growth. However, artificial intelligence remains a powerful secular trend, and the infrastructure needed to build it could sustain elevated growth in 2026 and beyond.\n\nThis mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). N/A or canceled there means everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 6, 10:21 AM ET · World Day 855","resolves":1799038740,"resolvesText":"Jan 3, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 3,005","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791296460,"p":[0.7249,0.2751],"r":[0.7249,0.2751]},{"at":1791300551,"p":[0.7249,0.2751],"r":[0.7249,0.2751]}],"book":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"mid":72.49,"bestBid":72,"bestAsk":73,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":73,"shares":30,"people":0,"house":30,"total":21.9},{"price":74,"shares":60,"people":0,"house":60,"total":66.3},{"price":75,"shares":62,"people":0,"house":62,"total":112.8},{"price":76,"shares":64,"people":0,"house":64,"total":161.44},{"price":77,"shares":65,"people":0,"house":65,"total":211.49},{"price":78,"shares":68,"people":0,"house":68,"total":264.53}],"bids":[{"price":72,"shares":29,"people":0,"house":29,"total":20.88},{"price":71,"shares":58,"people":0,"house":58,"total":62.06},{"price":70,"shares":56,"people":0,"house":56,"total":101.26},{"price":69,"shares":56,"people":0,"house":56,"total":139.9},{"price":68,"shares":54,"people":0,"house":54,"total":176.62},{"price":67,"shares":54,"people":0,"house":54,"total":212.8}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"mid":27.51,"bestBid":27,"bestAsk":28,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":28,"shares":29,"people":0,"house":29,"total":8.12},{"price":29,"shares":58,"people":0,"house":58,"total":24.94},{"price":30,"shares":56,"people":0,"house":56,"total":41.74},{"price":31,"shares":56,"people":0,"house":56,"total":59.1},{"price":32,"shares":54,"people":0,"house":54,"total":76.38},{"price":33,"shares":54,"people":0,"house":54,"total":94.2}],"bids":[{"price":27,"shares":30,"people":0,"house":30,"total":8.1},{"price":26,"shares":60,"people":0,"house":60,"total":23.7},{"price":25,"shares":62,"people":0,"house":62,"total":39.2},{"price":24,"shares":64,"people":0,"house":64,"total":54.56},{"price":23,"shares":65,"people":0,"house":65,"total":69.51},{"price":22,"shares":68,"people":0,"house":68,"total":84.47}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":1086,"slug":"s-and-p-500-spx-up-or-down-on-october-6","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/s-and-p-500-spx-up-or-down-on-october-6","q":"S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 6?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":["stocks"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Up","p":0.915,"ref":0.967},{"name":"Down","p":0.085,"ref":0.033}],"chance":0.915,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/spx-up-or-down-on-october-6-2026","ref":0.967,"b":1358,"state":[-120.632788,-3347.611263],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791294942,"closes":1791316800,"closesText":"Oct 6, 4 PM ET · World Day 860","closesWorldDay":860,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":28,"slug":"fed-decision-in-october","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/fed-decision-in-october","q":"Fed Decision in October?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":["fed"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"No change","p":0.8057,"ref":0.8254},{"name":"25 bps increase","p":0.1832,"ref":0.1651},{"name":"50+ bps increase","p":0.004,"ref":0.0035},{"name":"25 bps decrease","p":0.0036,"ref":0.0045},{"name":"Other","p":0.0036,"ref":0.0015}],"chance":0.8057,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":844,"trades":23,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537","ref":0.8254,"b":7670,"state":[-812.962359,-12174.269934,-41465.482841,-42353.554044,-42353.554044],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1793246340,"closesText":"Oct 28, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,396","closesWorldDay":1396,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":57,"slug":"will-crude-oil-reach-a-new-all-time-high-by-december-31","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-crude-oil-reach-a-new-all-time-high-by-december-31","q":"Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.1788,"ref":0.095},{"name":"No","p":0.8212,"ref":0.905}],"chance":0.1788,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":2588,"trades":75,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/crude-oil-all-time-high-by","ref":0.095,"b":4327,"state":[-5185.231782,1410.077409],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231805,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":16,"slug":"strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31","q":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.2283,"ref":0.185},{"name":"No","p":0.7717,"ref":0.815}],"chance":0.2283,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":2027,"trades":50,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31","ref":0.185,"b":5728,"state":[-6433.424072,542.239275],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":24,"slug":"bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-october-31","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-october-31","q":"Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.1316,"ref":0.055},{"name":"No","p":0.8684,"ref":0.945}],"chance":0.1316,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":2049,"trades":60,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by","ref":0.055,"b":4032,"state":[-6369.501882,1236.908343],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1793505540,"closesText":"Oct 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,468","closesWorldDay":1468,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":160,"slug":"xi-jinping-out-before-2027","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/xi-jinping-out-before-2027","q":"Xi Jinping out before 2027?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0699,"ref":0.0255},{"name":"No","p":0.9301,"ref":0.9745}],"chance":0.0699,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":417,"trades":27,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/xi-jinping-out-before-2027","ref":0.0255,"b":5738,"state":[-14992.713442,-142.331772],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791233005,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}