{"id":329,"slug":"will-there-be-a-warning-shot-before-october-20-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-there-be-a-warning-shot-before-october-20-2026","q":"Will there be a warning shot before October 20, 2026?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["ai"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.1388,"ref":0.1228},{"name":"No","p":0.8612,"ref":0.8772}],"chance":0.1388,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/LeoGao/will-there-be-a-warning-shot-before","ref":0.1228,"b":1488,"state":[-2938.10645,-222.394558],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791238645,"closes":1792565940,"closesText":"Oct 21, 2:59 AM ET · World Day 1,207","closesWorldDay":1207,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"The spirit of the question is whether there occurs some singular event that directly causes multiple major AI capabilities organizations to simultaneously sharply change direction and focus substantially more effort on AI alignment. It is not intended to include multiple smaller events that cause cumulative changes in attitudes, or multiple events that only cause single organizations to change course. It is also not intended to restrict to only warning shots that successfully cause coordination across all AGI labs; even if only a small subset of (but more than 2) labs pivot sharply, this question resolves Yes.\n\nA warning shot is an event that demonstrates compellingly that alignment considerations should be taken more seriously, typically a catastrophic failure or a compelling demonstration of the possibility of dangerous failure.\n\nIn particular, it should include at least two of the following organizations: \n\nOpenAI\n\nDeepMind\n\nMeta AI Research \n\nGoogle\n\nMicrosoft\n\nBAAI\n\nThe kinds of things that would qualify as \"sharply changing direction\" include:\n\nAn announcement or public statement describing the event in question as a \"warning shot\" or similar, and announcing a shift in priorities, cessation of capabilities research publishing, etc.\n\nA sudden shift in research priorities or strategic behavior that indicates taking alignment a lot more seriously than before, as observed through published output after an event that is broadly accepted as a \"warning shot\"\n\nIf there is any ambiguity, as usual, I will exercise my judgement to resolve in the spirit of the question.\n\nThis mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). N/A or canceled there means everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 5, 6:17 PM ET · World Day 839","resolves":1792825140,"resolvesText":"Oct 24, 2:59 AM ET · World Day 1,279","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791238620,"p":[0.1388,0.8612],"r":[0.1388,0.8612]},{"at":1791249660,"p":[0.1388,0.8612],"r":[0.1399,0.8601]},{"at":1791260460,"p":[0.1388,0.8612],"r":[0.1399,0.8601]},{"at":1791271260,"p":[0.1388,0.8612],"r":[0.1399,0.8601]},{"at":1791272100,"p":[0.1388,0.8612],"r":[0.1228,0.8772]},{"at":1791285660,"p":[0.1388,0.8612],"r":[0.1228,0.8772]},{"at":1791290590,"p":[0.1388,0.8612],"r":[0.1228,0.8772]}],"book":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"mid":13.88,"bestBid":13,"bestAsk":14,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":14,"shares":15,"people":0,"house":15,"total":2.1},{"price":15,"shares":120,"people":0,"house":120,"total":20.1},{"price":16,"shares":113,"people":0,"house":113,"total":38.18},{"price":17,"shares":108,"people":0,"house":108,"total":56.54},{"price":18,"shares":103,"people":0,"house":103,"total":75.08},{"price":19,"shares":99,"people":0,"house":99,"total":93.89}],"bids":[{"price":13,"shares":113,"people":0,"house":113,"total":14.69},{"price":12,"shares":136,"people":0,"house":136,"total":31.01},{"price":11,"shares":146,"people":0,"house":146,"total":47.07},{"price":10,"shares":159,"people":0,"house":159,"total":62.97},{"price":9,"shares":173,"people":0,"house":173,"total":78.54},{"price":8,"shares":192,"people":0,"house":192,"total":93.9}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"mid":86.12,"bestBid":86,"bestAsk":87,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":87,"shares":113,"people":0,"house":113,"total":98.31},{"price":88,"shares":136,"people":0,"house":136,"total":217.99},{"price":89,"shares":146,"people":0,"house":146,"total":347.93},{"price":90,"shares":159,"people":0,"house":159,"total":491.03},{"price":91,"shares":173,"people":0,"house":173,"total":648.46},{"price":92,"shares":192,"people":0,"house":192,"total":825.1}],"bids":[{"price":86,"shares":15,"people":0,"house":15,"total":12.9},{"price":85,"shares":120,"people":0,"house":120,"total":114.9},{"price":84,"shares":113,"people":0,"house":113,"total":209.82},{"price":83,"shares":108,"people":0,"house":108,"total":299.46},{"price":82,"shares":103,"people":0,"house":103,"total":383.92},{"price":81,"shares":99,"people":0,"house":99,"total":464.11}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":72,"slug":"gemini-4-0-released-by-october-31-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/gemini-4-0-released-by-october-31-2026","q":"Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["ai"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.8351,"ref":0.935},{"name":"No","p":0.1649,"ref":0.065}],"chance":0.8351,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":2771,"trades":63,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/gemini-4pt0-released-by-june-30-2026","ref":0.935,"b":2754,"state":[2274.848342,-2191.969143],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231805,"closes":1793505540,"closesText":"Oct 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,468","closesWorldDay":1468,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":49,"slug":"will-indiana-enact-a-data-center-moratorium-by-december-31-2028","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-indiana-enact-a-data-center-moratorium-by-december-31-2028","q":"Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & 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3,029","closesWorldDay":3029,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":669,"slug":"will-oklahoma-enact-a-data-center-moratorium-by-june-30-2027","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-oklahoma-enact-a-data-center-moratorium-by-june-30-2027","q":"Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["ai"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.115,"ref":0.115},{"name":"No","p":0.885,"ref":0.885}],"chance":0.115,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/oklahoma-enacts-data-center-moratorium-by-20260929","ref":0.115,"b":2998,"state":[-6484.143806,-366.258567],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791260007,"closes":1814414340,"closesText":"Jun 30, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 7,276","closesWorldDay":7276,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}