{"id":769,"slug":"will-there-be-evidence-of-extraterrestrial-life-presented-by-the-end-of-the","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-there-be-evidence-of-extraterrestrial-life-presented-by-the-end-of-the","q":"Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2028?","cat":"science","catName":"Science","emoji":"🔬","tags":["space"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0643,"ref":0.0643},{"name":"No","p":0.9357,"ref":0.9357}],"chance":0.0643,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/HakanKarlsson/will-evidence-supporting-the-existe-e0140acc5f08","ref":0.0643,"b":1290,"state":[-3540.605662,-85.693114],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791268901,"closes":1862002740,"closesText":"Jan 1, 5:59 PM ET · World Day 20,495","closesWorldDay":20495,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"This market will resolve to 'Yes' if, by December 31, 2028, evidence of extraterrestrial life is presented, meeting the following criteria:\n\nPublication in a Recognized Scientific Journal: The evidence must be detailed in at least one peer-reviewed publication in a high-impact scientific journal with significant academic reputation. Relevant fields include astronomy, astrobiology, or related scientific disciplines. Journals like 'Nature' and 'Science' are ideal examples, but other journals of similar standing are also acceptable.\n\nConfirmation by Space Exploration Authorities: The evidence must be independently confirmed or endorsed by at least two reputable space exploration agencies or governmental bodies. Agencies that could fulfill this role include, but are not limited to, NASA (United States), ESA (European Space Agency), Roscosmos (Russia), CNSA (China National Space Administration), or ISRO (Indian Space Research Organisation).\n\nRequirement for Direct and Unequivocal Evidence: The evidence must be direct and unequivocal, such as direct observations or physical samples, rather than indirect indications or substances presumed to be indicative of life.\n\nThe market will resolve to 'No' if, by the end of 2028, none of these criteria are satisfied. This includes cases where findings are published in recognized journals but lack confirmation by the specified agencies, or if confirmations are declared without an accompanying high-impact, peer-reviewed publication, or if the evidence is not direct and unequivocal.\n\nNote: The market will resolve to 'Yes' if all the criteria are met at any time up to and including December 31, 2028.\n\nAdditionally, the evidence can pertain to either past or present extraterrestrial life, encompassing findings such as fossilized biological m\n\nThis mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). N/A or canceled there means everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 6, 2:41 AM ET · World Day 847","resolves":1862261940,"resolvesText":"Jan 4, 5:59 PM ET · World Day 20,567","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791268860,"p":[0.0643,0.9357],"r":[0.0643,0.9357]},{"at":1791279274,"p":[0.0643,0.9357],"r":[0.0643,0.9357]}],"book":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"mid":6.43,"bestBid":6,"bestAsk":7,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":7,"shares":118,"people":0,"house":118,"total":8.26},{"price":8,"shares":186,"people":0,"house":186,"total":23.14},{"price":9,"shares":166,"people":0,"house":166,"total":38.08},{"price":10,"shares":150,"people":0,"house":150,"total":53.08},{"price":11,"shares":138,"people":0,"house":138,"total":68.26},{"price":12,"shares":127,"people":0,"house":127,"total":83.5}],"bids":[{"price":6,"shares":95,"people":0,"house":95,"total":5.7},{"price":5,"shares":248,"people":0,"house":248,"total":18.1},{"price":4,"shares":302,"people":0,"house":302,"total":30.18},{"price":3,"shares":384,"people":0,"house":384,"total":41.7},{"price":2,"shares":537,"people":0,"house":537,"total":52.44},{"price":1,"shares":907,"people":0,"house":907,"total":61.51}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"mid":93.57,"bestBid":93,"bestAsk":94,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":94,"shares":95,"people":0,"house":95,"total":89.3},{"price":95,"shares":248,"people":0,"house":248,"total":324.9},{"price":96,"shares":302,"people":0,"house":302,"total":614.82},{"price":97,"shares":384,"people":0,"house":384,"total":987.3},{"price":98,"shares":537,"people":0,"house":537,"total":1513.56},{"price":99,"shares":907,"people":0,"house":907,"total":2411.49}],"bids":[{"price":93,"shares":118,"people":0,"house":118,"total":109.74},{"price":92,"shares":186,"people":0,"house":186,"total":280.86},{"price":91,"shares":166,"people":0,"house":166,"total":431.92},{"price":90,"shares":150,"people":0,"house":150,"total":566.92},{"price":89,"shares":138,"people":0,"house":138,"total":689.74},{"price":88,"shares":127,"people":0,"house":127,"total":801.5}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":573,"slug":"predict-fun-fdv-above-50m-one-day-after-launch","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/predict-fun-fdv-above-50m-one-day-after-launch","q":"Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?","cat":"crypto","catName":"Crypto","emoji":"🪙","tags":["space"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.9165,"ref":0.9565},{"name":"No","p":0.0835,"ref":0.0435}],"chance":0.9165,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/predictfun-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch","ref":0.9565,"b":3745,"state":[-326.538578,-9298.492883],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791254006,"closes":1830315600,"closesText":"Jan 1, 12 AM ET · World Day 11,693","closesWorldDay":11693,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":707,"slug":"will-predict-fun-launch-a-token-by-december-31-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-predict-fun-launch-a-token-by-december-31-2026","q":"Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?","cat":"crypto","catName":"Crypto","emoji":"🪙","tags":["space"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.805,"ref":0.845},{"name":"No","p":0.195,"ref":0.155}],"chance":0.805,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-predictfun-launch-a-token-by","ref":0.845,"b":2554,"state":[-553.995806,-4175.16611],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791262407,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":585,"slug":"predict-fun-fdv-above-100m-one-day-after-launch","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/predict-fun-fdv-above-100m-one-day-after-launch","q":"Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?","cat":"crypto","catName":"Crypto","emoji":"🪙","tags":["space"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.885,"ref":0.935},{"name":"No","p":0.115,"ref":0.065}],"chance":0.885,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/predictfun-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch/predictfun-fdv-above-100m-one-day-after-launch","ref":0.935,"b":3602,"state":[-440.047818,-7790.488989],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791256407,"closes":1830315600,"closesText":"Jan 1, 12 AM ET · World Day 11,693","closesWorldDay":11693,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":811,"slug":"w15-islamabad-main-draw-completed-match-suzuna-oigawa-vs-jeong-moon","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/w15-islamabad-main-draw-completed-match-suzuna-oigawa-vs-jeong-moon","q":"W15 Islamabad, Main Draw: Completed Match: suzuna oigawa vs Jeong Moon","cat":"sports","catName":"Sports","emoji":"🏟️","tags":["space"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.54,"ref":0.51},{"name":"No","p":0.46,"ref":0.49}],"chance":0.54,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/itf-oigawa1-moon1-2026-10-07","ref":0.51,"b":1215,"state":[-748.666159,-943.482479],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791272141,"closes":1791954000,"closesText":"Oct 14, 1 AM ET · World Day 1,037","closesWorldDay":1037,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":140,"slug":"puffpaw-fdv-above-100m-one-day-after-launch","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/puffpaw-fdv-above-100m-one-day-after-launch","q":"Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after 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2026?","cat":"science","catName":"Science","emoji":"🔬","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0505,"ref":0.046},{"name":"No","p":0.9495,"ref":0.954}],"chance":0.0505,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/plague-pandemic-in-2026","ref":0.046,"b":1427,"state":[-4260.710832,-73.946781],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791275381,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}