{"id":171,"slug":"will-trump-serve-a-full-second-term-after-winning-in-2024","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-trump-serve-a-full-second-term-after-winning-in-2024","q":"Will Trump serve a full second term (after winning in 2024)?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["trump","us-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.84,"ref":0.84},{"name":"No","p":0.16,"ref":0.16}],"chance":0.84,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/NcyRocks/if-trump-wins-in-2024-will-he-serve","ref":0.84,"b":1168,"state":[-203.644756,-2140.45515],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791233365,"closes":1863558000,"closesText":"Jan 19, 6 PM ET · World Day 20,927","closesWorldDay":20927,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"Resolves NO if he dies, resigns, or is removed from office.\n\nThis mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). N/A or canceled there means everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 5, 4:49 PM ET · World Day 837","resolves":1863817200,"resolvesText":"Jan 22, 6 PM ET · World Day 20,999","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791233340,"p":[0.84,0.16],"r":[0.84,0.16]},{"at":1791246060,"p":[0.84,0.16],"r":[0.84,0.16]},{"at":1791256860,"p":[0.84,0.16],"r":[0.84,0.16]},{"at":1791267660,"p":[0.84,0.16],"r":[0.84,0.16]},{"at":1791276124,"p":[0.84,0.16],"r":[0.84,0.16]}],"book":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"mid":84,"bestBid":83,"bestAsk":85,"spread":2,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":85,"shares":89,"people":0,"house":89,"total":75.65},{"price":86,"shares":94,"people":0,"house":94,"total":156.49},{"price":87,"shares":101,"people":0,"house":101,"total":244.36},{"price":88,"shares":106,"people":0,"house":106,"total":337.64},{"price":89,"shares":115,"people":0,"house":115,"total":439.99},{"price":90,"shares":125,"people":0,"house":125,"total":552.49}],"bids":[{"price":83,"shares":85,"people":0,"house":85,"total":70.55},{"price":82,"shares":81,"people":0,"house":81,"total":136.97},{"price":81,"shares":77,"people":0,"house":77,"total":199.34},{"price":80,"shares":75,"people":0,"house":75,"total":259.34},{"price":79,"shares":71,"people":0,"house":71,"total":315.43},{"price":78,"shares":70,"people":0,"house":70,"total":370.03}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"mid":16,"bestBid":15,"bestAsk":17,"spread":2,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":17,"shares":85,"people":0,"house":85,"total":14.45},{"price":18,"shares":81,"people":0,"house":81,"total":29.03},{"price":19,"shares":77,"people":0,"house":77,"total":43.66},{"price":20,"shares":75,"people":0,"house":75,"total":58.66},{"price":21,"shares":71,"people":0,"house":71,"total":73.57},{"price":22,"shares":70,"people":0,"house":70,"total":88.97}],"bids":[{"price":15,"shares":89,"people":0,"house":89,"total":13.35},{"price":14,"shares":94,"people":0,"house":94,"total":26.51},{"price":13,"shares":101,"people":0,"house":101,"total":39.64},{"price":12,"shares":106,"people":0,"house":106,"total":52.36},{"price":11,"shares":115,"people":0,"house":115,"total":65.01},{"price":10,"shares":125,"people":0,"house":125,"total":77.51}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":13,"slug":"us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-october-15-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-october-15-2026","q":"US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["trump"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.2102,"ref":0.125},{"name":"No","p":0.7898,"ref":0.875}],"chance":0.2102,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":2282,"trades":47,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-byptptpt-20260713152715080/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-october-15-2026","ref":0.125,"b":4035,"state":[-4010.546621,1330.200831],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1792123140,"closesText":"Oct 15, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,084","closesWorldDay":1084,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":11,"slug":"clarity-act-h-r-3633-signed-into-law-in-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/clarity-act-h-r-3633-signed-into-law-in-2026","q":"Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?","cat":"crypto","catName":"Crypto","emoji":"🪙","tags":["trump"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.1261,"ref":0.0485},{"name":"No","p":0.8739,"ref":0.9515}],"chance":0.1261,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":1512,"trades":50,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026","ref":0.0485,"b":6064,"state":[-11531.825141,208.524649],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1798779600,"closesText":"Jan 1, 12 AM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":26,"slug":"us-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-15","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/us-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-15","q":"US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["trump"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.8094,"ref":0.86},{"name":"No","p":0.1906,"ref":0.14}],"chance":0.8094,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":2246,"trades":37,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt/us-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-15","ref":0.86,"b":2983,"state":[1615.675856,-2697.974119],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1792123140,"closesText":"Oct 15, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,084","closesWorldDay":1084,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":22,"slug":"us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-october-31-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-october-31-2026","q":"US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["trump"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.2214,"ref":0.225},{"name":"No","p":0.7786,"ref":0.775}],"chance":0.2214,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":936,"trades":26,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-byptptpt-20260713152715080/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-october-31-2026-20260727171711632-895-372-622-413-171-454-592-696","ref":0.225,"b":4819,"state":[-6328.368032,-269.542853],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1793505540,"closesText":"Oct 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,468","closesWorldDay":1468,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":98,"slug":"will-trump-acquire-greenland-before-2027","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-trump-acquire-greenland-before-2027","q":"Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["trump"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0642,"ref":0.0255},{"name":"No","p":0.9358,"ref":0.9745}],"chance":0.0642,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":828,"trades":36,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-acquire-greenland-before-2027","ref":0.0255,"b":6328,"state":[-16752.91816,199.542951],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232045,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":19,"slug":"will-the-iranian-regime-fall-before-2027","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-before-2027","q":"Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["trump"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.1071,"ref":0.055},{"name":"No","p":0.8929,"ref":0.945}],"chance":0.1071,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":348,"trades":12,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026","ref":0.055,"b":6143,"state":[-13377.292922,-347.511669],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}