{"id":1060,"slug":"will-trump-speak-to-luiz-inacio-lula-da-silva-by-october-31","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-trump-speak-to-luiz-inacio-lula-da-silva-by-october-31","q":"Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by October 31?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["trump"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.32,"ref":0.335},{"name":"No","p":0.68,"ref":0.665}],"chance":0.32,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-speak-to-by-october-31","ref":0.335,"b":1544,"state":[-1759.286533,-595.46287],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791293381,"closes":1793505540,"closesText":"Oct 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,468","closesWorldDay":1468,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":"Who will Trump speak to by October 31?","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual speaks with Donald Trump between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to \"No\".\n\nSpeaking is defined as any verbal interaction between the listed individual and Donald Trump, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call.\n\nThe resolution source will be credible media reporting. However, in the absence of definitive or in the case of contradictory media reporting, statements by either of the specified individuals or their official representatives will also be considered.\n\nStatements by the specified individuals or their official representatives will only be considered conclusive if the claims explicitly, or in context unambiguously, indicate that a qualifying talk occurred within the specified timeframe and took place via verbal communication, and provided that such claims are not contradicted by the other specified individual, their representatives, or credible media reporting by the end of the third calendar date (ET) following the statement in question.\n\nThis market will resolve at the earlier of i) a qualifying verbal interaction being confirmed under the above rules or ii) 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day following this market's above-specified timeframe.\n\nIf the date and time of a qualifying talk cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day following this market's above-specified timeframe, it will resolve to \"No\" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.","resolutionSource":"Polymarket's own resolution (UMA's optimistic oracle). If Polymarket voids or cancels it, everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 6, 9:29 AM ET · World Day 854","resolves":1793505540,"resolvesText":"Oct 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,468","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791293340,"p":[0.32,0.68],"r":[0.32,0.68]},{"at":1791293400,"p":[0.32,0.68],"r":[0.325,0.675]},{"at":1791294420,"p":[0.32,0.68],"r":[0.335,0.665]},{"at":1791296940,"p":[0.32,0.68],"r":[0.405,0.595]},{"at":1791297660,"p":[0.32,0.68],"r":[0.34,0.66]},{"at":1791298800,"p":[0.32,0.68],"r":[0.335,0.665]},{"at":1791300554,"p":[0.32,0.68],"r":[0.335,0.665]}],"book":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"mid":32,"bestBid":31,"bestAsk":33,"spread":2,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":33,"shares":70,"people":0,"house":70,"total":23.1},{"price":34,"shares":70,"people":0,"house":70,"total":46.9},{"price":35,"shares":68,"people":0,"house":68,"total":70.7},{"price":36,"shares":67,"people":0,"house":67,"total":94.82},{"price":37,"shares":67,"people":0,"house":67,"total":119.61},{"price":38,"shares":66,"people":0,"house":66,"total":144.69}],"bids":[{"price":31,"shares":72,"people":0,"house":72,"total":22.32},{"price":30,"shares":72,"people":0,"house":72,"total":43.92},{"price":29,"shares":75,"people":0,"house":75,"total":65.67},{"price":28,"shares":75,"people":0,"house":75,"total":86.67},{"price":27,"shares":78,"people":0,"house":78,"total":107.73},{"price":26,"shares":79,"people":0,"house":79,"total":128.27}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"mid":68,"bestBid":67,"bestAsk":69,"spread":2,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":69,"shares":72,"people":0,"house":72,"total":49.68},{"price":70,"shares":72,"people":0,"house":72,"total":100.08},{"price":71,"shares":75,"people":0,"house":75,"total":153.33},{"price":72,"shares":75,"people":0,"house":75,"total":207.33},{"price":73,"shares":78,"people":0,"house":78,"total":264.27},{"price":74,"shares":79,"people":0,"house":79,"total":322.73}],"bids":[{"price":67,"shares":70,"people":0,"house":70,"total":46.9},{"price":66,"shares":70,"people":0,"house":70,"total":93.1},{"price":65,"shares":68,"people":0,"house":68,"total":137.3},{"price":64,"shares":67,"people":0,"house":67,"total":180.18},{"price":63,"shares":67,"people":0,"house":67,"total":222.39},{"price":62,"shares":66,"people":0,"house":66,"total":263.31}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":13,"slug":"us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-october-15-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-october-15-2026","q":"US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["trump"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.2094,"ref":0.125},{"name":"No","p":0.7906,"ref":0.875}],"chance":0.2094,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":3103,"trades":67,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-byptptpt-20260713152715080/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-october-15-2026","ref":0.125,"b":4035,"state":[-3206.546621,2155.200831],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1792123140,"closesText":"Oct 15, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,084","closesWorldDay":1084,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":26,"slug":"us-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-15","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/us-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-15","q":"US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["trump"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.7943,"ref":0.875},{"name":"No","p":0.2057,"ref":0.125}],"chance":0.7943,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":3621,"trades":68,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt/us-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-15","ref":0.875,"b":2983,"state":[2877.675856,-1152.974119],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1792123140,"closesText":"Oct 15, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,084","closesWorldDay":1084,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":11,"slug":"clarity-act-h-r-3633-signed-into-law-in-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/clarity-act-h-r-3633-signed-into-law-in-2026","q":"Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?","cat":"crypto","catName":"Crypto","emoji":"🪙","tags":["trump"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.119,"ref":0.0485},{"name":"No","p":0.881,"ref":0.9515}],"chance":0.119,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":1856,"trades":81,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026","ref":0.0485,"b":6064,"state":[-11702.825141,438.524649],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1798779600,"closesText":"Jan 1, 12 AM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":22,"slug":"us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-october-31-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-october-31-2026","q":"US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["trump"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.2214,"ref":0.225},{"name":"No","p":0.7786,"ref":0.775}],"chance":0.2214,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":936,"trades":26,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-byptptpt-20260713152715080/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-october-31-2026-20260727171711632-895-372-622-413-171-454-592-696","ref":0.225,"b":4819,"state":[-6328.368032,-269.542853],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1793505540,"closesText":"Oct 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,468","closesWorldDay":1468,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":98,"slug":"will-trump-acquire-greenland-before-2027","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-trump-acquire-greenland-before-2027","q":"Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["trump"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0765,"ref":0.026},{"name":"No","p":0.9235,"ref":0.974}],"chance":0.0765,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":1063,"trades":56,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-acquire-greenland-before-2027","ref":0.026,"b":6328,"state":[-15562.91816,199.542951],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232045,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":19,"slug":"will-the-iranian-regime-fall-before-2027","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-before-2027","q":"Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["trump"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.1104,"ref":0.055},{"name":"No","p":0.8896,"ref":0.945}],"chance":0.1104,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":548,"trades":32,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026","ref":0.055,"b":6143,"state":[-13167.292922,-347.511669],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}