{"id":174,"slug":"will-trump-usa-buy-or-acquire-part-of-greenland","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-trump-usa-buy-or-acquire-part-of-greenland","q":"Will Trump/USA buy or acquire part of Greenland?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["trump","us-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.06,"ref":0.0609},{"name":"No","p":0.94,"ref":0.9391}],"chance":0.06,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/LeeBressler/will-trump-buy-greenland","ref":0.0609,"b":2540,"state":[-7146.063221,-157.163525],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791233365,"closes":1863665940,"closesText":"Jan 20, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 20,957","closesWorldDay":20957,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"Donald Trump has expressed interest in purchasing at least part of Greenland. If the United States acquires at least part of Greenland before January 20, 2029, then the market resolves YES.\n\nUpdate 2025-02-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on Acquisition Criteria:\n\nThe market will resolve YES if Greenland becomes a US territory or if the US government or one of its constituent agencies acquires any portion of Greenland.\n\nThis acquisition must involve government ownership of the land, not merely private or academic entities (for example, a science lab established by Harvard University does not qualify).\n\nUpdate 2026-01-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator emphasizes that this market is about whether Greenland or a meaningful portion of it becomes part of America, not about minor acquisitions like a single building or small plot of land. The resolution will be obvious when it happens - this is about substantial territorial acquisition, not edge cases involving minimal land or property ownership.\n\nThis mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). N/A or canceled there means everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 5, 4:49 PM ET · World Day 837","resolves":1863925140,"resolvesText":"Jan 23, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 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announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["trump"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.2164,"ref":0.235},{"name":"No","p":0.7836,"ref":0.765}],"chance":0.2164,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":653,"trades":15,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-byptptpt-20260713152715080/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-october-31-2026-20260727171711632-895-372-622-413-171-454-592-696","ref":0.235,"b":4819,"state":[-6723.368032,-521.542853],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1793505540,"closesText":"Oct 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 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experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}