{"id":1737,"slug":"will-ukraine-recapture-crimean-territory-by-december-31-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-ukraine-recapture-crimean-territory-by-december-31-2026","q":"Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0358,"ref":0.032},{"name":"No","p":0.9642,"ref":0.968}],"chance":0.0358,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":18,"trades":[{"at":1791375530,"buyer":"resres1377xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx","buyerName":"rael_delgligli","seller":"house","sellerName":"The house","taker":"buy","outcome":"Yes","o":0,"shares":552,"price":3.39,"gold":18.7}],"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-ukraine-recapture-crimean-territory-by-june-30-2026","ref":0.032,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":4736,"state":[-15749.403766,-154.029836],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791373610,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":"Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?","rules":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nTerritory will be considered captured if any part of Crimea is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.\n\nAny continuous shading under the following layers will qualify:\n- Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives\n\nOnce a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIf Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.","resolutionSource":"Polymarket's own resolution (UMA's optimistic oracle). If Polymarket voids or cancels it, everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 7, 7:46 AM ET · World Day 876","resolves":1798779540,"resolvesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791373560,"p":[0.032,0.968],"r":[0.032,0.968]},{"at":1791375480,"p":[0.0358,0.9642],"r":[0.032,0.968]},{"at":1791378859,"p":[0.0358,0.9642],"r":[0.032,0.968]}],"book":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"mid":3.58,"bestBid":3,"bestAsk":4,"spread":1,"last":3.39,"asks":[{"price":4,"shares":544,"people":0,"house":544,"total":21.76},{"price":5,"shares":1107,"people":0,"house":1107,"total":77.11},{"price":6,"shares":913,"people":0,"house":913,"total":131.89},{"price":7,"shares":781,"people":0,"house":781,"total":186.56},{"price":8,"shares":683,"people":0,"house":683,"total":241.2},{"price":9,"shares":610,"people":0,"house":610,"total":296.1}],"bids":[{"price":3,"shares":867,"people":0,"house":867,"total":26.01},{"price":2,"shares":1969,"people":0,"house":1969,"total":65.39},{"price":1,"shares":3331,"people":0,"house":3331,"total":98.7}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"mid":96.42,"bestBid":96,"bestAsk":97,"spread":1,"last":3.39,"asks":[{"price":97,"shares":867,"people":0,"house":867,"total":840.99},{"price":98,"shares":1969,"people":0,"house":1969,"total":2770.61},{"price":99,"shares":3331,"people":0,"house":3331,"total":6068.3}],"bids":[{"price":96,"shares":544,"people":0,"house":544,"total":522.24},{"price":95,"shares":1107,"people":0,"house":1107,"total":1573.89},{"price":94,"shares":913,"people":0,"house":913,"total":2432.11},{"price":93,"shares":781,"people":0,"house":781,"total":3158.44},{"price":92,"shares":683,"people":0,"house":683,"total":3786.8},{"price":91,"shares":610,"people":0,"house":610,"total":4341.9}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"top":[{"key":"resres1377xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx","name":"rael_delgligli","shares":552,"cost":19.97,"res":true}],"count":1},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":114,"slug":"which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026","q":"Which party will win the House in 2026?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections","world-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Democratic Party","p":0.8452,"ref":0.925},{"name":"Republican Party","p":0.1548,"ref":0.075}],"chance":0.8452,"change24":-0.0061,"change7d":null,"vol":6040,"trades":132,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026","ref":0.925,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":5709,"state":[5079.91756,-4612.835248],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232165,"closes":1793768340,"closesText":"Nov 3, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,541","closesWorldDay":1541,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":13,"slug":"us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-october-15-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-october-15-2026","q":"US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["trump"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.1831,"ref":0.105},{"name":"No","p":0.8169,"ref":0.895}],"chance":0.1831,"change24":-0.029,"change7d":null,"vol":6650,"trades":151,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-byptptpt-20260713152715080/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-october-15-2026","ref":0.105,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":4035,"state":[-200.546621,5833.200831],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1792123140,"closesText":"Oct 15, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,084","closesWorldDay":1084,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":17,"slug":"putin-out-as-president-of-russia-by-december-31-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/putin-out-as-president-of-russia-by-december-31-2026","q":"Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["world-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.1079,"ref":0.0305},{"name":"No","p":0.8921,"ref":0.9695}],"chance":0.1079,"change24":0.0235,"change7d":null,"vol":5021,"trades":179,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/putin-out-before-2027","ref":0.0305,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":6055,"state":[-9098.346856,3690.378115],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":1312,"slug":"florida-senate-election-winner-who-wins","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/florida-senate-election-winner-who-wins","q":"Florida Senate Election Winner: who 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1,541","closesWorldDay":1541,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":144,"slug":"next-french-presidential-election-who-wins","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/next-french-presidential-election-who-wins","q":"Next French Presidential Election: who wins?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["world-elections"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Marine Le Pen","p":0.5277,"ref":0.4503},{"name":"Édouard Philippe","p":0.1451,"ref":0.1822},{"name":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","p":0.1041,"ref":0.1302},{"name":"David Lisnard","p":0.0981,"ref":0.1286},{"name":"François Hollande","p":0.044,"ref":0.0386},{"name":"Gabriel Attal","p":0.0166,"ref":0.0224},{"name":"Raphaël Glucksmann","p":0.0112,"ref":0.014},{"name":"Bruno Retailleau","p":0.0096,"ref":0.013},{"name":"Sarah Knafo","p":0.0081,"ref":0.0104},{"name":"Éric 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Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}